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Archive for April 10th, 2013

For the Rest of Tonight

| 9:40 pm April 10, 2013

The weather across Alabama is calm and should remain that way for the rest of tonight.

Severe weather will continue through the overnight hours to our west. Tornado watches are in effect from north of St.Louis down the Mississippi River to Natchez. Strong and severe thunderstorms continue along a frontal boundary that is slowly easing its way to the east. Many of the storms have lost some of their punch this evening, but there are still severe storms ongoing in the watch areas. There have been several reported tornadoes in Arkansas and Missouri. There were several tornado warning for the downtown area of St. Louis earlier.

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This storm system is moving very slowly. Severe weather should make its way into Alabama by mid-morning. The Birmingham metro should see the worst weather early to mid-afternoon.

Storms will redevelop along the frontal boundary tomorrow. Daytime heating will also cause additional destabilization of the atmosphere across the state tomorrow and we will have to watch as storms should re-intensify. It should be a very busy day for severe weather across the state. All aspects of severe weather will be possible. Damaging winds and large hail will be associated with the squall line that will be swinging through the state. We will have to watch for a few isolated tornadoes within the line and in any thunderstorms that develop out ahead of the main line.

Numerous flash flood warning have been issued tonight as well. Thunderstorms are dropping copious amounts of rainfall in short periods of time. This will be an issue for many areas across Alabama tomorrow too. Most locations could receive 1-2 inches of rain.

Severe Storms to Our West

| 6:21 pm April 10, 2013

A quick look at the radar this evening shows strong and severe storms over portions of Arkansas and Louisiana. Numerous severe thunderstorms warnings, flash flood warnings, and even some tornado warnings are in effect across the region. There was a confirmed tornado earlier this afternoon to the northwest of Little Rock. This activity will persist through the night and will continue to move slowly east.

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A tornado watch is also in effect for portions of Central Mississippi, NE Louisiana and SE Arkansas until 1AM. Areas long and west of Interstate 55 are included in this watch, but currently not the city of Jackson. We should make it through the night with no issues with severe weather across the Alabama. Tomorrow will be a different story, expect a very active day for severe weather across the entire state. Plan now and get prepared.

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Severe Storms Expected Tomorrow

| 3:57 pm April 10, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM APRIL AFTERNOON: As warm as 87 degrees in Alabama this afternoon… that is the current observation in Montgomery as I write this update. Most other places are in the mid 80s, and the sky is basically yellow thanks to the vast sea of pollen over the state. Nothing is on the radar, and the chance of rain remains tiny through tonight.

Should be a great night for the home opener for the Birmingham Barons at the all new Regions Field in downtown Birmingham… about 80 at the first pitch with a gusty south breeze. Only a 10 percent chance of a shower during the game.

TO THE WEST: Tornado watches cover much of Arkansas, and up into Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. Storms will increase in this region in coming hours.

THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW: Generally speaking, the morning model set has come in with parameters that are little more favorable for severe weather tomorrow. Instability values are a little higher (surface based CAPE values over 1,000 j/kg), along with significant low level shear and low LCL (lifted condensation level) heights will favor a squall line with potential for damaging winds, and a few tornadoes in cells that form east of the main line.

TIMING: No real change in our thinking. The overall severe weather threat is from 11:00 a.m. until 11:00 p.m.

*Storms should impact places in West Alabama like Haleyville, Vernon, Fayette, Hamilton, Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Eutaw, and Greensboro from 11:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m.

Then, the risk moves east, and from 2:00 until 5:00 p.m. cities like Birmingham, Cullman, Brent, Oneonta, Cullman, Clanton, and Pell City.

And, the biggest risk from 5:00 until 9:00 p.m. will be for communities like Anniston, Gadsden, Ashland, Centre, Heflin, and Roanoke, in East Alabama.

Please understand these are approximate times for the MAIN BAND of storms… discrete storms will form ahead of that main line and can happen earlier.

MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER: The high resolution NAM is showing discrete cells forming tomorrow afternoon over the eastern half of Alabama, ahead of the main squall line over West Alabama. This means the highest tornado probability will be over the eastern counties of the state with these cellular storms, but we still can’t rule out an isolated tornado over West Alabama. Strong, potentially damaging straight line winds will be likely along the main line that sweeps across the state during the afternoon and evening hours.

SPC has raised a 45 percent probability of severe weather for parts of Alabama tomorrow afternoon… meaning a “moderate risk” will be needed… highest severe weather probabilities are east of a line from Birmingham to Demopolis to Mobile. This means in the enhanced area there is a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point.

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HEAVY RAIN: Rain amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches are likely, and there could be a few flooding issues before the day is over, especially in low lying and flood prone areas. On the positive side, this rain will knock down the pollen levels on a temporary basis.

*Be sure you are in a position to hear severe weather watches and warnings tomorrow as they are issued… this should NEVER be an outdoor warning siren… a NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline, and it is a great idea to have a good smart phone app like MyWarn, or iMap WeatherRadio so you can get warnings on the go. You can also watch ABC 33/40 severe weather coverage on these apps if we have tornado warnings.

*Please pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings. Damaging straight line winds can produce damage just like a tornado in many cases. Listen to the specific words used in each warning… they will clearly define the threat.

The storms will end from west to east across Alabama tomorrow night as drier air works into the state.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Sunshine returns to Alabama Friday with a high in the low 70s… the weekend will be dry. Lots of sun Saturday with a high in the mid 70s… partly sunny Sunday with a high not too far from 80 degrees.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will return to Alabama Monday as moisture surges northward, but there is little dynamic forcing and for now we don’t expect any severe weather problems. A few showers could linger into Tuesday and Wednesday… see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing the kids at Curry Elementary and Middle School in Walker County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Midday Update

| 12:56 pm April 10, 2013

After a review of the 12Z model data… looks like we will need to hit the tornado threat a little harder for tomorrow, especially over the eastern two-thirds of Alabama…

Below is the 4km (high resolution) NAM output valid at 4 p.m. tomorrow…

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Note the potential for discrete cells ahead of the main squall line. These storms will have the potential for a few tornadoes based on the new projected wind profiles.

I will have a full discussion and Weather Xtreme video by 4:00… but here are the important points…

*All modes of severe weather will be possible across Alabama tomorrow… below is a graphic prepared at midday by the NWS Birmingham

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*SPC has raised a 45 percent probability of severe weather for parts of Alabama tomorrow afternoon… meaning a “moderate risk” will be needed… highest severe weather probabilities are south of I-20, and east of I-65.

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*Storms should impact places in West Alabama like Haleyville, Vernon, Fayette, Hamilton, Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Eutaw, and Greensboro from 11:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m.

Then, the risk moves east, and from 3:00 until 6:00 p.m. cities like Birmingham, Cullman, Brent, Oneonta, Cullman, Clanton, and Pell City.

And, the biggest risk from 6:00 until 9:00 p.m. will be for communities like Anniston, Gadsden, Ashland, Centre, Heflin, and Roanoke, in East Alabama.

Again… look for a detailed update a little later this afternoon along with a fresh Weather Xtreme video…

Very Warm Today; Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

| 5:56 am April 10, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

BACK TO THE 80s: We project a high today back in the 83-86 degree range for most of Alabama with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will pick up out of the south this afternoon ahead of a major storm system to the west, but we should stay generally dry through tonight with only a slight risk of a rogue shower.

BARONS HOME OPENER: For tonight’s inaugural game at the new Regions Park in downtown Birmingham… the weather will be warm and breezy… about 80 degrees at the first pitch with just a 10-20 percent chance of a brief shower passing by. Rain should not be a big issue.

TO THE WEST: SPC maintains a large “slight risk” of severe weather for places like Shreveport, Jackson, Little Rock, and Memphis. Quite frankly, this big system underperformed yesterday with no tornadoes reported… just a few hailers over the Great Plains. SPC has backed off a bit on the overall magnitude of the risk; yesterday they had a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point in the core of the risk… today is back down to a 30 percent chance. Still, storms west of Alabama later today could produce large hail, damaging wind, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible.

TOMORROW’S SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN ALABAMA……

*Based on slower trends in model output, I now expect the main severe weather risk to come from 11:00 a.m. until 11:00 p.m. tomorrow. No doubt a few storms could work into Northwest Alabama earlier than 11:00 a.m., but the core of the severe risk will come during the afternoon and evening hours, which is, of course, during the peak of the daytime heating process, and comes at a time when the air tends to be most unstable.

*Storms should impact places in West Alabama like Haleyville, Vernon, Fayette, Hamilton, Jasper, Tuscaloosa, Eutaw, and Greensboro from 10:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m.

Then, the risk moves east, and from 3:00 until 6:00 p.m. cities like Birmingham, Cullman, Brent, Oneonta, Cullman, Clanton, and Pell City.

And, the biggest risk from 6:00 until 9:00 will be for communities like Anniston, Gadsden, Ashland, Centre, Heflin, and Roanoke, in East Alabama.

Please understand these arrival times could change, but that is the best idea now based on model output.

*The primary risk will come from strong, potentially damaging straight line winds. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out anywhere in Alabama. It seems like the highest risk of a tornado will come over the eastern half of Alabama late tomorrow, where the air will be a bit more unstable. We have seen several model hint at a few discrete cells ahead of the main squall line over the eastern counties, and these will need to be monitored for potential of storm rotation.

*All 67 Alabama counties are in a standard “slight risk” as defined by the Storm Prediction Center… and the higher 30 percent severe weather probabilities include much of North-Central Alabama.

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*Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed meteorological discussion of the threat tomorrow. Overall, the severe weather parameters are not really overwhelming for an April event in our state, but certainly supportive of severe thunderstorms, and perhaps an isolated tornado. And, as we always say, when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected.

*Be sure you are in a position to hear severe weather watches and warnings tomorrow as they are issued… this should NEVER be an outdoor warning siren… a NOAA Weather Radio is the baseline, and it is a great idea to have a good smart phone app like MyWarn, or iMap WeatherRadio so you can get warnings on the go. You can also watch ABC 33/40 severe weather coverage on these apps if we have tornado warnings.

*Please pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings. Damaging straight line winds can produce damage just like a tornado in many cases. Listen to the specific words used in each warning… they will clearly define the threat.

The storms will end from west to east across Alabama tomorrow night as drier air works into the state.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The sky will become mostly sunny Friday with a high around 70. Saturday will be a delightful day, with a cool morning (lows in the 40s), followed by a mild afternoon (the GFS is printing a high of 74). Sunday’s high will be close to 80 with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks unsettled, with some risk of showers and storms on a daily basis Monday through Wednesday. For now we don’t expect severe weather, and the showers won’t be continuous. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have weather programs today up in Walker County at Curry… at the elementary and middle school. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…