Archive for April 13th, 2013
Today is a fantastic Saturday of weather. Any and all outdoor activities planned should have no weather related issues, well minus a little pollen. Severe clear are the words for today as only a few clouds are blocking the sun from Texas to the East Coast. Ample sunshine and low humidity is what makes this one of the best times of year across the Southeast. Most areas across the state will see highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows will settle into the lower 50s.
As we head through the overnight hours, the weather will be changing some and rain chances will rise drastically for Sunday. An upper level feature will be working its ways across the Gulf Coast States tomorrow and with it, additional uplift and moisture that will bring rain and some thunderstorms to the region. Models have been struggling with how far north the rain shield makes it, but most areas across Central Alabama wills see rain for Sunday. The farther south you go, certainly the better chance of rain. Severe weather is not expected. A look below at the forecast for Sunday evening, shows rain well into Central Alabama. Most areas will see around one half inch of rain.
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The thunderstorms of Thursday helped to clear the pollen and the air mass change cleared the sky and dropped the temperature nicely. So we are the beneficiaries of a wonderful day today before the next system brings a shot at rain in here tomorrow afternoon/evening. Be sure to watch the video for an interesting clip of the EF-3 tornado which affected Kemper and Noxubee counties in Mississippi and Pickens County in Alabama.
A surface high keeps the weather beautiful today as temperatures climb a bit into the middle 70s. But a low latitude trough will push eastward Sunday generating a surface low in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The low will move to the Southeast US coast by early Monday morning sweeping the rain chances east. The forecast for Sunday becomes quite challenging in trying to determine what temperatures will do. Timing of the increased cloud cover along with the onset of what is more typical of a winter-like pattern could greatly impact the temperatures. I’m going to go against the MOS numbers which are in the mid 70s for Sunday and drop back to the upper 60s for highs. Soundings across the Southeast US show our atmosphere to be very dry, so I expect to see cooling due to evaporative cooling as precipitation develops. Should precipitation develop later, though, temperatures could move a little higher than the expected upper 60s.
Looks like Monday will be a mostly cloudy day with high temperatures in the middle 70s since there is no real air mass change but the cooling rain will have moved eastward. An upper ridge builds into the eastern US for mid-week, but moisture returns as the surface flow comes around to the southeast and dew points are expected to climb. This means that we might see the development of some showers but without a good forcing mechanism, I think they will be isolated at best.
A strong trough develops to our west presenting a threat for another round of severe storms in the Thursday/Friday time frame. The GFS and ECMWF are in close agreement on the features, but there are still minor differences. So confidence is pretty high on a strong cold front sweeping into Alabama probably Friday and bringing another round of wet weather. SPC has highlight a severe weather risk to our northwest for Day 5, Wednesday, but stops short of anything further east. This is certainly another system to keep an eye as we see how it evolves in future model runs.
The front and the upper trough swing by late Friday, so we should see clearing weather for next weekend with a nice cool down similar to the one we just experienced.
Long range projections show another system around the 21st followed by several days of good weather. Yet another system develops over the Rockies around the 27th as the overall flow remains active.
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I hope that you will have an opportunity to enjoy the lovely weather today. I expect to post another Weather Xtreme Video by 8 am or so on Sunday. Godspeed.