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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for April 15th, 2013

Summer-Like Weather Ahead

| 3:19 pm April 15, 2013

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today**

WARMING UP: The weather will feel more like June in coning days; we rise into the mid 80s each afternoon… dewpoints rise into the 60s. This will create unstable conditions, and like June, we will mention the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms” tomorrow and Wednesday. Storms that form during the heat of the day can be strong with potential for some hail and gusty winds. The chance of any one spot seeing a storm is about one in four both days.

TO THE WEST: SPC has identified a “moderate risk” of severe weather on “Day 3″… which is Wednesday…

day3otlk_0730

This has the potential to be a major severe weather event for cities like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita.

Here in Alabama Thursday, the day should be generally dry with a high in the mid 80s again… any afternoon storms will be pretty widely spaced.

THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: The new 12Z GFS continues to show a line of strong to severe storms moving into Alabama Friday morning…

gfs_precip_thick_east_17

With the primary surface low to the north, it still looks like the primary severe weather threat will come from damaging straight line winds along the line. But, isolated tornadoes will certainly be possible with bulk shear values of over 50 knots (see the bulk shear from the surface to 850 mb below)

GFS_3_2013041512_F90_SHRM_850_MB

Still looks like the primary risk of severe weather will come from 3:00 a.m. until 11:00 p.m. This, of course, could change as the event gets closer.

COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND: Expect early morning lows in the 40-45 degree range early Saturday and Sunday morning; the high Saturday will be in the upper 60s, followed by a high around 70 Sunday. We project a good supply of sunshine both days with dry air in place.

You can see the morning Weather Xtreme video for more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s new episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… you can watch it live right here.

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I had a great time visiting the 3rd graders at Edgewood Elementary in Homewood today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Warming Up This Week

| 5:59 am April 15, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

MONDAY MORNING LOOK: Low clouds cover most of Alabama this morning, with some dense fog way down south. Temperatures are generally in the 50s, and there is no rain on radar.

We figure the low clouds will begin to break later this morning, allowing for a partly sunny afternoon. Temperatures should reach the upper 70s today if the sun does make an appearance.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: These days will be more like summer. Very warm with highs in the mid 80s (maybe upper 80s in spots), and very humid with dewpoints up in the 60s. This will make the air unstable, and like a summer day, we will forecast “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon storm on these days is about one in four, and where the storms do form they will pack a punch with some hail and gusty winds possible.

TO THE WEST: SPC has raised a “moderate risk” of severe weather Wednesday for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, where a significant tornado outbreak is likely with many severe weather parameters falling into place.

THURSDAY: SPC defines a severe weather risk for places like Memphis and Jackson, and around here we will stay warm and very humid. An afternoon storm is possible, but they should be very widely spaced.

SEVERE STORMS EARLY FRIDAY: Model data is actually in pretty good agreement; a line of strong to severe storms should move into Alabama very early Friday morning during the pre-dawn hours. While instability values are not very impressive (under 500 j/kg), the wind fields are screaming with a low level jet of over 60 knots. Damaging straight line winds will be possible along the line of storms, but we can’t rule out an isolated, embedded tornado with high bulk shear values in the lower 5,000 feet of the atmosphere.

For now it looks like the primary window for severe weather in Alabama will come from 3:00 a.m. until 11:00 a.m. Friday. The sky should clear Friday afternoon, and we turn cooler with a high in the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday promises to be a beautiful day with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 60s. We will begin the day down in the low 40s, and colder pockets across North Alabama could visit the 30s with a touch of light frost in a few spots, but it shouldn’t be widespread. Sunday’s sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 70s.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, details, and some long range thoughts.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have a weather program today at Edgewood Elementary in Homewood… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!