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SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED TODAY: While showers are possible across Alabama today, they will remain rather widely separated, and mainly this afternoon and early tonight. The sky will be partly sunny, and expect a high between 85 and 88 degrees for most communities. But, after today, our weather turns wet just in time for the Fourth of July holiday.
SUMMER RAIN: We will deal with occasional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday as a deep tropical moisture plume moves up into the state, and the upper trough shifts a bit to the west, providing good atmospheric lift. If you like the numbers game, the GFS “probability of precipitation” for Birmingham is…
Those numbers are very high for summer. Unfortunately, we can’t give you specific start and stop times for the rain at any spot (like a fireworks show, BBQ, etc), but no doubt we will be dealing with occasional rain and thunderstorms on these four days. While severe weather isn’t expected, a strong storm or two is likely, and don’t forget all summer storms can pack an amazing amount of dangerous cloud to ground lighting. Just use your common sense and get inside when you hear thunder.
The rain could be heavy at times, and the 00Z NAM is printing a whopping 3.05″ for Birmingham over the next 84 hours. Don’t think there will be major flooding issues, but some localized problems with high water are possible.
On the positive side, temperatures will be well below average due to the clouds and rain. Some places won’t get out of the 70s Thursday and Friday.
OUR WEEKEND: While scattered to numerous showers and storms remain likely Saturday, the upper high over the Atlantic will begin to nose in here from the east Sunday, meaning increasing amounts of sunshine, fewer showers, and rising heat levels. We should reach 90 degrees Sunday afternoon with a partly sunny sky… any showers or storms should be widely spaced.
NEXT WEEK: It will be more like summer in Alabama next week… highs in the low 90s with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”.
AT THE BEACH: ABout 5 to 7 hours of sunshine today for the Central Gulf Coast with a few scattered showers and storms. Unfortunately, the weather still looks pretty wet tomorrow through Saturday with lots of clouds and occasional showers and tropical downpours. The 00Z NAM is printing 5.49″ for Pensacola by Friday, and some flooding issues are possible along the way. Showers will finally begin to thin out late in the weekend, and next week should be brighter with more sunshine and fewer showers and storms. Highs on the coast will remain in the 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.
Below is the forecast rain across the region through Thursday afternoon from the 06Z high res NAM…
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I will be over in Anniston today doing a severe weather safety program for ALAGASCO… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!