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Archive for July 2nd, 2013

Boomers Marching Northward

| 9:32 pm July 2, 2013

A cluster of thunderstorms that was about 40 miles long and about 15 miles wide was located from Selma in Dallas County to just west of Monroeville in Monroe County was moving steadily northward this evening. Moderate to heavy rain was occurring with the cluster of storms. There was not a great deal of lightning with the cluster, but a few cloud to ground lightning strikes from time to time.

Latest surface analysis showed dew points continuing to inch upward in Central Alabama. While this cluster has lost the heat of the sun, it has been holding together for the last several hours and is likely to hold together for several more hours. Based on the current movement of 25 to 30 mph northward, people in parts of Autaugua, Chilton, Shelby, Perry and Bibb counties can expect to get some rain and probably hear a little thunder between now and midnight.

It might even get to my house, so I’d better get Cheyenne’s thunder coat ready. My poor dog just does not understand thunder.

-Brian-

BMX Radar at 9:30 pm

BMX Radar at 9:30 pm

Wet Fourth Of July Ahead

| 3:51 pm July 2, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

QUIET AFTERNOON: We only have a few isolated showers over East Alabama on radar today… otherwise the sky is partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 80s, quite comfortable for early July in Alabama.

HERE COMES THE RAIN: A deep axis of tropical moisture will move over Alabama tomorrow, and with an upper trough positioned to the west, we will forecast a good chance of developing showers and thunderstorms. The high res 4km NAM model suggests the heaviest rain will come over the eastern side of the state, but all parts of Alabama have a good chance of getting wet at times tomorrow. The high will be in the 80 to 85 degree range with only a limited amount of sunshine.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The Fourth of July still looks wet. Deep moisture in place, and good dynamic support from the upper trough. Expect occasional showers and thunderstorms on both of these days… it won’t rain all day, but the rain could be heavy at times when it falls. The 12Z NAM is printing 3.44″ of rain at Birmingham over the next 84 hours…. a flash flood watch is up for most of Georgia, and some spotty flash flooding issues could be a problem around here, especially over the eastern half of the state.

Temperatures will remain below average; some Alabama communities won’t get out of the 70s Thursday and Friday due to the clouds and rain.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS has come in with a wetter look. It doesn’t really extend the Atlantic ridge into our state, meaning we will still deal with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. It also means highs will hold in the 80s. Our last 90 degree high came on June 29… so it sure looks like the string of days under 90 will run to at least seven. Maybe longer.

NEXT WEEK: Again, the 12Z GFS keeps us in a pretty moist pattern early in the week. Without the upper ridge overhead, we will deal with a chance of showers and storms on a daily basis, with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: The latest NAM (12Z run) is printing 5.22″ of rain for Pensacola Beach for the next 84 hours, so needless to say things will be wet on the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores tomorrow through Friday. Showers and storms are likely each day, with heavy rain at times and a few strong storms. You might see a little sun from time to time, but probably not very much. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperatures are running mostly in the low 80s.

TROPICAL WEATHER: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I had a great time seeing everybody at the ALAGASCO service center in Anniston today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Wet Fourth Of July Weather For Alabama

| 6:12 am July 2, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED TODAY: While showers are possible across Alabama today, they will remain rather widely separated, and mainly this afternoon and early tonight. The sky will be partly sunny, and expect a high between 85 and 88 degrees for most communities. But, after today, our weather turns wet just in time for the Fourth of July holiday.

SUMMER RAIN: We will deal with occasional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday as a deep tropical moisture plume moves up into the state, and the upper trough shifts a bit to the west, providing good atmospheric lift. If you like the numbers game, the GFS “probability of precipitation” for Birmingham is…

Wednesday 69%
Thursday 94%
Friday 69%
Saturday 68%

Those numbers are very high for summer. Unfortunately, we can’t give you specific start and stop times for the rain at any spot (like a fireworks show, BBQ, etc), but no doubt we will be dealing with occasional rain and thunderstorms on these four days. While severe weather isn’t expected, a strong storm or two is likely, and don’t forget all summer storms can pack an amazing amount of dangerous cloud to ground lighting. Just use your common sense and get inside when you hear thunder.

The rain could be heavy at times, and the 00Z NAM is printing a whopping 3.05″ for Birmingham over the next 84 hours. Don’t think there will be major flooding issues, but some localized problems with high water are possible.

On the positive side, temperatures will be well below average due to the clouds and rain. Some places won’t get out of the 70s Thursday and Friday.

OUR WEEKEND: While scattered to numerous showers and storms remain likely Saturday, the upper high over the Atlantic will begin to nose in here from the east Sunday, meaning increasing amounts of sunshine, fewer showers, and rising heat levels. We should reach 90 degrees Sunday afternoon with a partly sunny sky… any showers or storms should be widely spaced.

NEXT WEEK: It will be more like summer in Alabama next week… highs in the low 90s with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”.

AT THE BEACH: ABout 5 to 7 hours of sunshine today for the Central Gulf Coast with a few scattered showers and storms. Unfortunately, the weather still looks pretty wet tomorrow through Saturday with lots of clouds and occasional showers and tropical downpours. The 00Z NAM is printing 5.49″ for Pensacola by Friday, and some flooding issues are possible along the way. Showers will finally begin to thin out late in the weekend, and next week should be brighter with more sunshine and fewer showers and storms. Highs on the coast will remain in the 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.

Below is the forecast rain across the region through Thursday afternoon from the 06Z high res NAM…

hires_t_precip_ky_20

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be over in Anniston today doing a severe weather safety program for ALAGASCO… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

WeatherBrains 388: JB’s 1964 K-Mart Shirt

| 5:10 am July 2, 2013

WeatherBrains Episode 388 is now online (July 1, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Contributing Editor at Weatherwise magazine. He is also a retired meteorologist and volunteer at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, CO. Thomas Schlatter, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 127 at Death Valley, CA, and 37 at Santa Maria, CO
  • Western heat and eastern cool
  • 14 flash flood warnings going on during the show
  • Fire situation very bad in the west
  • No Slight Risk areas from SPC for the next three days
  • Could be another high cost year in weather damage
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer, Nate, handles the incoming messages from our listeners since he last checked.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This episode of 101 goes a little off the grid this week with a look at a colloquial term that is probably difficult to find in any meteorological textbook. The term “sucker hole” may not have originated in the field of meteorology, but it sure applies to our field.

    TWIWH: No TWIWH this week.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 388:

    WeatherWise Magazine

    NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory

    Vodcast called POLYGON

    Picks of the Week:

    JB Elliott – Air Check from 1978

    Nate Johnson – Blog post by Stu Ostro
    Summary of James Spann’s AMS talk

    Bill Murray – Book, The Last Days of Last Island

    Brian Peters – Lightning Strike to a Golf Course

    Kevin Selle – NWS Fort Worth Social Media page

    James Spann – Historical Hurricane Tracks

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Audible.com graphic