An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
RADAR CHECK: As I write this at daybreak, rain is falling over much of the Birmingham area, with other scattered showers around the state. And, a few areas of dense fog have developed. This, of course, means the air remains very moist; PW (precipitable water) values are around 1.8″ across North-Central Alabama (very moist environment). And, with a moist airmass, we will meed to maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
But, the showers and storms will be scattered, and the rain won’t be continuous, much like yesterday. The sun should peek out at times, and we should reach the mid 80s today. Interesting to note that today should be the 9th consecutive day with a high temperature below 90 degrees in Birmingham… very rare for late June and July.
MID-WEEK: Both the NAM and the GFS look relatively dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Still, we will deal with a few showers and thunderstorms, but they should be widely spaced (and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours), and the sky will be partly sunny both days. Temperatures will be warmer, with a high in the 87-90 degree range both days. Some West Alabama communities could reach the low 90s.
A surface front is expected to approach the state Thursday, which should bring an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms. Then, on Friday, the GFS tries to bring drier air down into the northern third of the state with no rain along and north of U.S. 278. We all know that dry air rarely makes it this far south in July, but we will scale back the chance of rain Friday based on this idea.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Very challenging forecast. The 00Z GFS develops a cut-off upper low around Dothan Saturday. If this is correct, moist air could circulate back into North Alabama and we will deal with some risk of showers Saturday and Sunday. Not a total wash-out like late last week, but just occasional showers with a mostly cloudy sky both days. On the other hand, we have seen recent model runs that put the northern half of the state in dry air; one run over the weekend even hinted at potential record low temperatures for North Alabama early Saturday morning.
For now, we will mention a chance of showers Saturday and Sunday, and we will fine tune the forecast as the weekend gets closer. Afternoon highs should be in the mid to upper 80s.
GULF COAST WEATHER: After a really wet Fourth of July on the coast, the weather will be somewhat brighter and drier this week. Still, as is almost always the case in summer, there will be scattered showers and storms around each day through Friday (from Panama City west to Gulf Shores), but the rain won’t be continuous, and each day you can expect 5-7 hours of sunshine today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. However, showers and storms should increase Thursday, Friday, and this weekend as the upper low begins to form over the region. Still, you might see some sun on these four days, but the amount of sunshine should be somewhat limited. Highs will remain in the 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 80 degrees.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: The third tropical storm of the season formed last night, and it will move through the Windward Islands within the next 24 hours on the journey west into the Caribbean. Most models, and the official NHC track, turn Chantal to the north before moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is expected to remain below hurricane strength since it will be fighting dry air, and will have interaction with a number of islands across the Lesser Antilles. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m… you can watch on our weather channel called “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…