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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for July 8th, 2013

Latest on Chantal

| 7:46 pm July 8, 2013

7-8-2013 7-34-53 PM

The National Hurricane Center continues to track Tropical Storm Chantal this evening. She has strengthened ever so slightly through out the day and here are the latest details from the NHC.

…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…11.8N 55.0W
ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH…43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.82 INCHES

As we look at where she is heading, this image shows all the different and latest model runs on Chantal. She is expected to affect the Lesser Antilles before continuing a track to the northwest across the Greater Antilles. She is expected to cross Hispaniola and emerge over the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas later this week. We still have plenty of time to watch this, but some of the models are suggesting that once Chantal makes it to the east coast of Florida, she could turn west and cross the peninsula and perhaps affect the Gulf Coast. It certainly could bring heavier rain back into the Southeast by the end of the weekend.

7-8-2013 7-30-55 PM

Showers Thin Out Tomorrow/Wednesday

| 3:51 pm July 8, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR PEEK: Most of the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon are over the eastern half of Alabama… a few strong storms are in progress between Gadsden and Anniston, and near Lake Martin and Alexander City as I write this around 3:15. Showers are moving to the east, and will die down later this evening once the sun goes down. Temperatures remain well below average… Birmingham reports 84 degrees at 3:00.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: While a few showers and storms are certainly possible, these two days should be drier with increased sunshine amounts. Also, afternoons will be warmer with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range. The chance of any one spot getting wet on these days is about one in four, and the best chance comes during the afternoon and evening hours. Another words, fairly typical summer weather.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: An approaching front from the north should bring an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday; the high should drop back into the mid 80s because of clouds and showers. Then, on Friday, the GFS continues to insist that drier air will creep into the northern third of the state, with few, if any, showers for places like Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Hamilton, and Cullman. We will keep the chance of showers going roughly for I-59 and points south on Friday.

OUR WEEKEND: An upper low, now over the Bahamas, is expected to retrogress in coming days, and by Saturday should be over the Florida Panhandle. This will spread moisture back into Alabama, and unfortunately it looks like we deal with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with a mostly cloudy sky. Showers should thin out a bit Sunday as the upper low moves west and weakens. Highs over the weekend will be in the 80s, and the best chance of seeing some decent intervals of sun will come Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the GFS to move westward across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, mainly as a rainmaker. This feature could enhance the chance of rain for the Gulf Coast early in the week, but it way too early to know for sure. Around here the first half of the week looks fairly routine, but deeper moisture could bring enhanced rain chances over the latter half of the week.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: The system continues to pack sustained winds of 45 mph, and will move through the Windward Islands over the next 24 hours. Model agreement is good; Chantal should move over Hispaniola later this week, and be near the Bahamas by Saturday. NHC keeps the system well below hurricane strength, which is a good idea with dry air surrounding the system, and lots of island interaction ahead. This could bring a good wet-down to parts of Central and South Florida early next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Tomorrow could be the brightest day on the Gulf Coast this week, with 6 to 8 hours of sunshine likely from Panama City to Gulf Shores with only a few scattered showers or storms. Look for better coverage of rain later in the week as the upper low comes into play; periods of rain look likely by Friday and the weekend with only a limited amount of sunshine. Highs will remain in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the low 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Watch this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around Alabama, or on the web here.

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Another Day with Showers and Thunderstorms

| 1:48 pm July 8, 2013

A mixed bag of weather again across Alabama with peeks of sunshine through mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The warm, moist and muggy air mass in place over Alabama continues to provide fuel for these widespread showers and thunderstorms across the state. Numerous showers developed late this morning and as we have headed into the afternoon, additional activity has developed. Currently, more widespread showers are across East Alabama stretching down to the southwest through Clay, Talladega and Coosa Counties. A few thunderstorms have developed across portions of Autauga and Dallas Counties. Most of the activity is slowly pushing off towards the east this afternoon.

7-8-2013 1-40-14 PM

Chantal Still Moving West-Northwest Rapidly

| 11:23 am July 8, 2013

7-8-2013 11-27-52 AM

Not much has changed with Chantal as she tracks her way off to the west-northwest rapidly at 25 mph. Winds are at 45mph and she continues to head towards the Windward Islands. The NHC is still expecting Chantal to make a more northerly turn once she gets into the Caribbean. If the current track holds up, she will cross the the Lesser Antilles and head towards Hispaniola. Hispaniola has very high mountains and these mountains rip storms apart and always cause storms to weaken. Even well developed hurricanes have seen quite an intensity change crossing this island after interacting with these mountains.

We still have plenty of time to watch this system, but as of right now, she looks to remain an East Coast storm. Tropical storm watches and warnings are already in effect for many of the islands in her path. We will be keeping a watchful eye on here the next few days.

7-8-2013 11-09-04 AM

…CHANTAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…10.9N 51.7W
ABOUT 550 MI…885 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH…41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO…INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* SAINT LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAINT VINCENT
* PUERTO RICO…INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA…USUALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…AND EASTERN
CUBA…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA WITHIN THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH…41 KM/H…AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER
OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY…AND MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…AND
PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL…CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS…WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE

Moist Air Hangs Over Alabama

| 6:34 am July 8, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As I write this at daybreak, rain is falling over much of the Birmingham area, with other scattered showers around the state. And, a few areas of dense fog have developed. This, of course, means the air remains very moist; PW (precipitable water) values are around 1.8″ across North-Central Alabama (very moist environment). And, with a moist airmass, we will meed to maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

But, the showers and storms will be scattered, and the rain won’t be continuous, much like yesterday. The sun should peek out at times, and we should reach the mid 80s today. Interesting to note that today should be the 9th consecutive day with a high temperature below 90 degrees in Birmingham… very rare for late June and July.

MID-WEEK: Both the NAM and the GFS look relatively dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Still, we will deal with a few showers and thunderstorms, but they should be widely spaced (and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours), and the sky will be partly sunny both days. Temperatures will be warmer, with a high in the 87-90 degree range both days. Some West Alabama communities could reach the low 90s.

A surface front is expected to approach the state Thursday, which should bring an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms. Then, on Friday, the GFS tries to bring drier air down into the northern third of the state with no rain along and north of U.S. 278. We all know that dry air rarely makes it this far south in July, but we will scale back the chance of rain Friday based on this idea.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Very challenging forecast. The 00Z GFS develops a cut-off upper low around Dothan Saturday. If this is correct, moist air could circulate back into North Alabama and we will deal with some risk of showers Saturday and Sunday. Not a total wash-out like late last week, but just occasional showers with a mostly cloudy sky both days. On the other hand, we have seen recent model runs that put the northern half of the state in dry air; one run over the weekend even hinted at potential record low temperatures for North Alabama early Saturday morning.

For now, we will mention a chance of showers Saturday and Sunday, and we will fine tune the forecast as the weekend gets closer. Afternoon highs should be in the mid to upper 80s.

GULF COAST WEATHER: After a really wet Fourth of July on the coast, the weather will be somewhat brighter and drier this week. Still, as is almost always the case in summer, there will be scattered showers and storms around each day through Friday (from Panama City west to Gulf Shores), but the rain won’t be continuous, and each day you can expect 5-7 hours of sunshine today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. However, showers and storms should increase Thursday, Friday, and this weekend as the upper low begins to form over the region. Still, you might see some sun on these four days, but the amount of sunshine should be somewhat limited. Highs will remain in the 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 80 degrees.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: The third tropical storm of the season formed last night, and it will move through the Windward Islands within the next 24 hours on the journey west into the Caribbean. Most models, and the official NHC track, turn Chantal to the north before moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is expected to remain below hurricane strength since it will be fighting dry air, and will have interaction with a number of islands across the Lesser Antilles. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m… you can watch on our weather channel called “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…