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Archive for July 9th, 2013

Chantal Update

| 7:27 pm July 9, 2013

7-9-2013 7-14-46 PM

Over the course of the day, Chantal has continued to move quickly across the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The pressure inside the storm has remained constant so strengthening has been minimal. Here are the latest observations on Chantal from the National Hurricane Center.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 220 MI…360 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 26 MPH…43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

Now where is she heading, lets take a quick look at the NHC official track where we are able to see all the watches and warnings across the islands of the Caribbean.

7-9-2013 7-19-37 PM

A quick look at all the models’ tracks, shows there is pretty descent agreement on where Chantal is heading. Most of the models bring it across Hispaniola and north through the Bahamas to where she is more than likely will be off the east coast of Florida this weekend. It will be interesting to see how the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola affects both the intensity and track of Chantal. Once she emerges back into the water, then will we begin to have a better understanding of where she could be heading.

7-9-2013 7-18-45 PM

Flash Flood Warning Montgomery County until 7:30PM

| 4:42 pm July 9, 2013

Aliant Bank is a proud sponsor of AlabamaWX.com!

An intense summertime thunderstorm has dropped very heavy rain across the city of Montgomery. Numerous reports of streets flooding across the city as some areas have received more than two inches of rain in a short amount of time. This warning does include the Capitol and will be impacting surface streets as well as Interstate 65 & 85 as well as Highways 80, 82, 231 & 331

7-9-2013 4-45-58 PM

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN AND
AROUND MONTGOMERY OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MONTGOMERY…ALABAMA STATE CAPITOL…ALABAMA STATE UNIVERSITY…
AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY…BOYLSTON…DANNELLY FIELD…
EASTDALE MALL…GUNTER AIR FORCE BASE…HOPE HULL…HYUNDAI MOTORS
OF ALABAMA…LAGOON PARK…MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE…MONTGOMERY
RIVERWALK STADIUM…MONTGOMERY ZOO…MOUNT MEIGS…PIKE ROAD…
PINEDALE…SNOWDOUN…WAUGH AND WOODCREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

 

Hit And Miss Showers/Storms

| 3:58 pm July 9, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Very typical summer day for Alabama, although temperatures are below average (Birmingham reports 89 degrees at 3:00). On radar, we have the classic case of “widely scattered afternoon showers”… the showers are rather small, and in totally random locations with little movement. They will fade away once the sun goes down later tonight.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: We expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms on both days, but the rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should be out at times. A surface boundary will drop in here late Thursday, and the high resolution NAM hints the most widespread showers and storms could very well move down into South Alabama by Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs should hold in the 87 to 90 degree range.

FRIDAY: The GFS continues the idea of dry air moving into North Alabama. In fact, the 12Z run of the model has the entire northern half of the state pretty much rain-free Friday, with a good supply of sunshine and lower humidity levels. We will move in that direction in our forecast; the high Friday will be in the upper 80s.

OUR WEEKEND: Model consistency is not good… the latest GFS takes the TUTT low pretty far to the south of here, over the northern Gulf of Mexico, meaning we could very well stay dry Saturday with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 80s. Then, scattered showers or storms are possible statewide Sunday, but it won’t be an “all day” rain, and the sun will be shining occasionally. Sunday’s high will be between 87 and 90.

NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on Tropical Storm Chantal. And, with the uncertainty, our forecast will pretty much reflect climatology… partly sunny days, some risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Afternoon highs next week will be around 90 degrees. But, keep in mind this could change if Chantal begins a drift to the west.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: Although the system looks pretty ragged due to the fast forward motion (25-30 mph), NHC has upper the maximum sustained winds to 65 mph this afternoon as the system moves into the Caribbean. Not much change in the overall track; it will move over Hispaniola tomorrow/tomorrow night, and should be over the Bahamas by Friday. It remains to be seen how Chantal will emerge after interaction with Hispaniola, but conditions seem to favor strengthening over the Bahamas this weekend. The 12Z model set shifted a bit to the right, hinting at a landfall around Savannah, or maybe even Charleston. But, other runs have taken Chantal westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There simply isn’t enough skill in a specific forecast more than five days in advance, so stay tuned.

One way or another, the main impact for the Southeast U.S. will be lots of rain.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Today has turned out to be pretty nice from Panama City to Gulf Shores, with a good supply of sunshine and only widely scattered showers and storms. For the rest of the week, we project about 3 to 5 hours of sunshine with the daily disk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunshine could be a little more limited this weekend due to the TUTT low passing just south of the Central Gulf Coast with an increase in the number of showers and storms.

The weather next week will all depend on the track of Chantal, and there isn’t enough confidence for a really specific forecast for now. Stay tuned, and see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the Master Gardeners of Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Central Alabama NWA Chapter Summer Social

| 2:13 pm July 9, 2013

7-9-2013 1-49-10 PM

If you aren’t part of the Chapter, you don’t know what you are missing. We are having a blast and have had some dynamite speakers with more on the way!!!

Our next Chapter function is rapidly approaching and we need to get a head count in order to get enough tickets together for the baseball game.

The event is Tuesday, July 23, 2013, in Downtown Birmingham at the new Region’s Field. Members get in free and guests may join in the fun for $7 a ticket. It will also be $0.50 hot dog night, so come hungry.

We encourage as many people as possible to come out for the fun and hopefully consider joining the chapter. Please make sure you RSVP and if you are a guest or will be bringing guests, you may go ahead and purchase tickets now using PayPal.

Deadline to RSVP and/or purchase your tickets is Noon on Monday, July 15, 2013. Our ticket count is due to the Barons that day.

Get all the information, RSVP and Purchase Tickets Here.

If you are interested in joining the chapter you can do that Here.

Look forward to seeing you there and Play Ball!!!

Chantal Strengthens, Moving Rapidly

| 10:59 am July 9, 2013

7-9-2013 10-54-50 AM

Tropical Storm Chantal continues to race towards the west-northwest today. Pressure has dropped and her winds have increased. Here are the latest details from the National Hurricane Center.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.4N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI…85 KM NW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

Here is the official track from the National Hurricane Center.

7-9-2013 10-45-05 AM

Here are some of the latest model runs on Chantal as well. They all bring her across the island of Hispaniola and that should affect her intensity due to the very high mountains on the island. She then continues to track to the west-northwest into the Bahamas and then looks to take a more westward turn across the Florida Peninsula. This is certainly a storm we will be keeping our eye on, as it could bring some very heavy rains to the Gulf Coast.

7-9-2013 10-49-07 AM

Showers Fewer In Number Today

| 6:28 am July 9, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Naturally, about the time we talk about fewer showers, they pop up pretty quickly on radar early this morning over East Alabama. Rain is falling at daybreak around Anniston, Gadsden, and Weiss Lake, but the rest of the state is dry. As discussed here so many times, forecasting placement and timing of summer showers is one of the most challenging tasks we face every year in operational meteorology here.

There is a chance of showers and storms statewide today and early tonight, but they should be more widely spaced, unlike recent days. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in four, and aside from the morning showers over East Alabama, most of the showers should come between 1 and 8 p.m. Otherwise, the day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the upper 80s. Some West Alabama communities might touch 90 degrees for the first time since late June.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Showers and storms will remain rather scattered tomorrow, and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours with a high between 87 and 90. But, on Thursday, we expect an increase in the number of showers and storms as a surface front approaches from the north. It won’t rain all day Thursday, but it could rain at any time, and a strong storm is possible in spots (SPC has the low end 5 percent severe weather possibilities defined for most of Alabama Thursday).

Beyond Thursday, the weather will be chance on a day to day basis… let’s take it one day at a time…

FRIDAY: The GFS continues to show drier air entering North Alabama, with generally rain-free conditions north of I-59, and a risk of showers continuing to the south. For Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, we will hang on to the risk of a shower Friday, but they should be pretty widely spaced. The high will be in the upper 80s.

SATURDAY: A TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric upper trough) will move along the Gulf Coast, and moisture should increase statewide. So, we will forecast scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the best coverage over the southern half of Alabama. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

SUNDAY: The TUTT will move west, and we should in a typical summer pattern with a mix of sun and clouds, and the risk of a passing shower or storm in spots, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The high should be in the 87-90 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather will depend on the behavior of Tropical Storm Chantal. The GFS brings the system across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early in the week, with a second landfall around Panama City/Apalachicola by mid-week. Skill in forecasting a tropical system this far in advance is very low, and this solution might not be correct. I think the best solution for our part of Alabama at this point is a forecast toward climatology (partly sunny, humid days with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms), and we can make changes as needed as we get clarity on Chantal.

CHANTAL: The tropical storm looks rather ragged this morning… it is moving so fast (25-30 mph) that the low level circulation is outrunning the convection. It will have to move right over Hispaniola tomorrow night, and the mountainous island will be a big obstacle. If it survives, the system should wind up over the Bahamas by the weekend, with a turn to the left thanks to a strong ridge north of the system in the Atlantic. The GFS shows landfall around Cape Canaveral early next week… then emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. We do note the intensity model guidance is more aggressive this morning, and NHC keeps Chantal as a tropical storm into the Bahamas. Still more questions than answers in terms of the effect on the Southeast U.S…. please see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 5 to 7 hours of sunshine today and tomorrow, but lowering to 2 to 4 hours by Thursday and Friday due to the TUTT low. Each day there will be a risk of scattered showers and storms, and they should be a little more active Thursday/Friday. For the weekend, we project 3 to 5 hours of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with a few passing showers and thunderstorms. The weather on the coast next week will be determined by how Chantal behaves, and it is simply too early to know, just something to watch in coming days. Highs on the coast will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
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I will be speaking to the Jefferson County Master Gardeners this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

WeatherBrains 389: Frustration of Shower Forecasting

| 5:15 am July 9, 2013

WeatherBrains Episode 389 is now online (July 8, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Guest WeatherBrain for this episode is John Mecikalski from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). Using a tool developed at UAH, meteorologists in the continental U.S. now can get an advance warning of pop-up spring and summer storms before they pop up on radar. Using data from weather satellites, the UAH program can predict which puffy clouds are most likely to produce rain and lightning in the next 30 minutes to two hours.

While the National Weather Service’s Doppler radar network provides reliable data on the location and intensity of rain once it starts falling, models used to forecast when and where convective storms might start producing rain have are not been very accurate in forecasting either the exact locations or the timing of thunderstorms. The SATCAST (Satellite Convection Analysis and Tracking system) uses data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration GOES weather satellites to monitor cumulus clouds as they develop, move and grow before they become thunderstorms.

During the system’s 10-year development, UAHuntsville scientists learned that important factors in predicting thunderstorm formation are temperature change in cloud tops, how strong the updraft is within the cloud, and determining when water vapor in the tops of cumulus clouds turns to ice. These can be monitored using multiple satellite sensor channels.

Also joining us this evening as Guest Panelist is LeAnn Lombardo, meteorologist with WQOW-TV in Eau Claire, WI. LeAnn Lombardo joined the WQOW News 18 Forecast team in March of 2006. A native of western Wisconsin, LeAnn was interested in weather from a very early age and recalls watching the weather from the back barn door of her large Clear Lake dairy farm. LeAnn completed her schooling at Mississippi State University and began her career at KAAL in Austin, MN. She has also been granted the AMS (American Meteorology Society) seal of approval and is a member of the National Weather Association.

After spending 5.5 years on the WQOW Daybreak desk, LeAnn decided to scale back her hours to spend more time with her family. You can now catch her every Sunday night at 10 p.m. and occasionally filling in when needed.

During her free time, LeAnn enjoys all the great Wisconsin Friday night fish fries, working out, playing volleyball and spending time with family and friends.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 122 at Death Valley, CA, and 32 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • TS Erick in the Eastern Pacific and TS Chantal in the Atlantic Basin
  • SPC slight risk area in North Central US
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: We are into the 2013 hurricane season and Tropical Storm Chantal was named just yesterday, the day before recording the latest episode. In fact, Chantal was probably born by an eastern wave. So in this episode of WeatherBrains 101, we take a look at what an easterly wave is and some information about them.

    TWIWH: Bill Murray is traveling in Oklahoma so no TWIWH this week.

    Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 389:

    SATCAST Web Page

    National Space Science and Technology Center, UAH

    WQOW-TV 18, Eau Claire, WI

    Storm Highway

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Heat Related Auto Deaths

    LeAnn Lombardo – Wind Map

    Brian Peters – Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

    James Spann – Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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