Archive for July 9th, 2013
Over the course of the day, Chantal has continued to move quickly across the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The pressure inside the storm has remained constant so strengthening has been minimal. Here are the latest observations on Chantal from the National Hurricane Center.
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 220 MI…360 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 26 MPH…43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
Now where is she heading, lets take a quick look at the NHC official track where we are able to see all the watches and warnings across the islands of the Caribbean.
A quick look at all the models’ tracks, shows there is pretty descent agreement on where Chantal is heading. Most of the models bring it across Hispaniola and north through the Bahamas to where she is more than likely will be off the east coast of Florida this weekend. It will be interesting to see how the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola affects both the intensity and track of Chantal. Once she emerges back into the water, then will we begin to have a better understanding of where she could be heading.
An intense summertime thunderstorm has dropped very heavy rain across the city of Montgomery. Numerous reports of streets flooding across the city as some areas have received more than two inches of rain in a short amount of time. This warning does include the Capitol and will be impacting surface streets as well as Interstate 65 & 85 as well as Highways 80, 82, 231 & 331
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 441 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN AND
AROUND MONTGOMERY OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MONTGOMERY…ALABAMA STATE CAPITOL…ALABAMA STATE UNIVERSITY…
AUBURN UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY…BOYLSTON…DANNELLY FIELD…
EASTDALE MALL…GUNTER AIR FORCE BASE…HOPE HULL…HYUNDAI MOTORS
OF ALABAMA…LAGOON PARK…MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE…MONTGOMERY
RIVERWALK STADIUM…MONTGOMERY ZOO…MOUNT MEIGS…PIKE ROAD…
PINEDALE…SNOWDOUN…WAUGH AND WOODCREST.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
RADAR CHECK: Very typical summer day for Alabama, although temperatures are below average (Birmingham reports 89 degrees at 3:00). On radar, we have the classic case of “widely scattered afternoon showers”… the showers are rather small, and in totally random locations with little movement. They will fade away once the sun goes down later tonight.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: We expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms on both days, but the rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should be out at times. A surface boundary will drop in here late Thursday, and the high resolution NAM hints the most widespread showers and storms could very well move down into South Alabama by Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs should hold in the 87 to 90 degree range.
FRIDAY: The GFS continues the idea of dry air moving into North Alabama. In fact, the 12Z run of the model has the entire northern half of the state pretty much rain-free Friday, with a good supply of sunshine and lower humidity levels. We will move in that direction in our forecast; the high Friday will be in the upper 80s.
OUR WEEKEND: Model consistency is not good… the latest GFS takes the TUTT low pretty far to the south of here, over the northern Gulf of Mexico, meaning we could very well stay dry Saturday with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 80s. Then, scattered showers or storms are possible statewide Sunday, but it won’t be an “all day” rain, and the sun will be shining occasionally. Sunday’s high will be between 87 and 90.
NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on Tropical Storm Chantal. And, with the uncertainty, our forecast will pretty much reflect climatology… partly sunny days, some risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Afternoon highs next week will be around 90 degrees. But, keep in mind this could change if Chantal begins a drift to the west.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: Although the system looks pretty ragged due to the fast forward motion (25-30 mph), NHC has upper the maximum sustained winds to 65 mph this afternoon as the system moves into the Caribbean. Not much change in the overall track; it will move over Hispaniola tomorrow/tomorrow night, and should be over the Bahamas by Friday. It remains to be seen how Chantal will emerge after interaction with Hispaniola, but conditions seem to favor strengthening over the Bahamas this weekend. The 12Z model set shifted a bit to the right, hinting at a landfall around Savannah, or maybe even Charleston. But, other runs have taken Chantal westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There simply isn’t enough skill in a specific forecast more than five days in advance, so stay tuned.
One way or another, the main impact for the Southeast U.S. will be lots of rain.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Today has turned out to be pretty nice from Panama City to Gulf Shores, with a good supply of sunshine and only widely scattered showers and storms. For the rest of the week, we project about 3 to 5 hours of sunshine with the daily disk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunshine could be a little more limited this weekend due to the TUTT low passing just south of the Central Gulf Coast with an increase in the number of showers and storms.
The weather next week will all depend on the track of Chantal, and there isn’t enough confidence for a really specific forecast for now. Stay tuned, and see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
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I had a great time today visiting with the Master Gardeners of Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
If you aren’t part of the Chapter, you don’t know what you are missing. We are having a blast and have had some dynamite speakers with more on the way!!!
Our next Chapter function is rapidly approaching and we need to get a head count in order to get enough tickets together for the baseball game.
The event is Tuesday, July 23, 2013, in Downtown Birmingham at the new Region’s Field. Members get in free and guests may join in the fun for $7 a ticket. It will also be $0.50 hot dog night, so come hungry.
We encourage as many people as possible to come out for the fun and hopefully consider joining the chapter. Please make sure you RSVP and if you are a guest or will be bringing guests, you may go ahead and purchase tickets now using PayPal.
Deadline to RSVP and/or purchase your tickets is Noon on Monday, July 15, 2013. Our ticket count is due to the Barons that day.
Get all the information, RSVP and Purchase Tickets Here.
If you are interested in joining the chapter you can do that Here.
Look forward to seeing you there and Play Ball!!!
Tropical Storm Chantal continues to race towards the west-northwest today. Pressure has dropped and her winds have increased. Here are the latest details from the National Hurricane Center.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 55 MI…85 KM NW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
Here is the official track from the National Hurricane Center.
Here are some of the latest model runs on Chantal as well. They all bring her across the island of Hispaniola and that should affect her intensity due to the very high mountains on the island. She then continues to track to the west-northwest into the Bahamas and then looks to take a more westward turn across the Florida Peninsula. This is certainly a storm we will be keeping our eye on, as it could bring some very heavy rains to the Gulf Coast.