Archive for July 10th, 2013
We are still watching some strong storms as they drop south from the Tennessee Valley and are now beginning to impact portions of Cherokee and Etowah Counties. These storms are slowly weakening and should continue to do so over the next few hours.
These storms are producing gusty winds, hail, very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
There are additional storms in northwestern Alabama that will be dropping across western portions of the state.
Late this evening there are still strong and severe storms across the Tennessee Valley. These storms continue to drop south across the Huntsville metro and severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect in the area. We will have to watch these storms the next few hours as they could impact some of our northeastern counties. Damaging winds, hail, torrential rain fall and frequent lightning are accompanying these storms. These storms are expected to weaken over, but we will have to keep an eye on them.
A very strong thunderstorm has dropped tremendous amounts of rain across the metro area. Widespread flash flooding is being reported, especially along Highway 280. Do not drive through flooded roads. This is a very dangerous and life-threatening situation. Some areas received over 2 inches of rain in a very short period of time.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SHELBY COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 628 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND SHELY COUNTIES.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
VILLAGE…BARBER MOTORSPORTS PARK…BLUFF PARK…CAHABA HEIGHTS…
FOWLER LAKE…GREYSTONE…HARPERSVILLE…HIGHLAND LAKES…HOOVER
METROPOLITAN STADIUM…INDIAN SPRINGS VILLAGE…LAKE PURDY…
MAYLENE…MEADOWBROOK AND MOUNT LAUREL.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across Alabama this evening. Some very strong storms are impacting the Metro area with very dangerous lightning, torrential rains and gusty winds. None of these storms are currently severe, but they could be rather strong. Flash flooding could become a serious threat with the storms. The more intense storms are across the southern sections of the city and they are making rush hour a headache. Interstates 65, 459, 20 and 59 are being impacted as well as Highways 150, 31 and 280. Some of the cities seeing the worst of these storms are Bessemer, McCalla, Hoover, Homewood, Pelham, Helena, Alabaster and Calera. This complex of storms is moving to the south.
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ACTIVE STORMS: Strong summer storms continue in scattered pockets across Alabama this afternoon. Heavier storms at 4:00 this afternoon were south of I-85 in East Alabama… flooding was reported from this band of storms in Auburn earlier. Across North Alabama, scattered strong storms continue as well. All of the showers and storms are moving southeast.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will maintain a good chance of occasional showers and thunderstorms. The high resolution NAM model show a batch of showers and strong storms moving into the Tennessee Valley region of far North Alabama during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, then moving down toward Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden between 6 and 10 a.m. And, by afternoon, those storms move down into South Alabama. We will lean in that direction in the forecast, with the best chance of rain and storms coming during the morning hours. A few strong storms are possible tomorrow with gusty winds, but organized severe weather for now is not expected.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: These two days look rain-free, generally speaking, for the northern half of Alabama. Showers should be confined to the southern counties, and even there the activity will be pretty scattered. The high both days will be in the 86-90 degree range with a pretty good supply of sunshine.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: We will use the summer “broad brush” forecast… partly sunny days with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-90 degrees, and the chance of any one spot getting wet for the first half of the week is about one in three. This, of course, is under the assumption that tropical weather issues won’t crop up here.
CHANTAL DEGENERATES: Hurricane hunters again today could not find a closed circulation with the system in the Caribbean, and NHC has dropped the advisories for now. With a weak, shallow system, it is very hard to determine what happens next, but the remnant wave could bring some significant rain to Central and South Florida by Friday and Saturday. We will keep an eye on it.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Showers and storms are likely tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but the weather will be drier Friday with 7-9 hours of sunshine and only widely scattered showers. For the weekend, the TUTT low in the Gulf will be pretty far to the south, so it looks like fairly routine weather with 6-8 hours of sunshine Saturday and Sunday along with the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar weather is likely next week for the coast unless Chantel decides to get her act together. Highs along the immediate coast will hold in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is a warm 87 degrees.
MOBILE BAY WATERSPOUT: A big one formed this afternoon, but did not produce any damage as far as we know. The image below is courtesy of John Theobald, who took the picture just off the runway at Brookley Aeroplex in Mobile.
See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details on this discussion.
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I enjoyed spending some time on the campus of the University of Alabama this morning at a weather seminar… good to see many NWS, TV, and EMA friends there. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Here are some shots sent to me courtesy of some friends in the Mobile, Alabama area today. Several waterspouts reported around the Bay earlier today with thunderstorms.
A quick look at the radar shows widespread showers and thunderstorms for many areas across Central Alabama. The very warm, moist air mass is in place is providing fuel for this activity. Daytime heating has helped increase instability, which allowed this convection to fire up during the late morning hours and now heading through the afternoon. Some of the more intense activity in our area is over portions of Chilton and Coosa Counties. There is also a complex or more intense storms over central Marengo County. Most of this activity is dropping slowly to the east-southeast today. No storms are currently severe, but some could pack a punch this afternoon. Any of these storms could produce gusty winds, frequent and dangerous lightning as well as torrential rain. Flash flooding is the main threat with these storms today.
During the overnight hours, Chantal weakened quite a bit. She has been very disorganized from the get go because her forward speed is very fast for a tropical system. The bulk of her convection and thunderstorms have remained off to the east of the low pressure center. During the early morning hours, a closed circulation could not be found on satellite, and it was thought the Chantal may have transitioned back into an open tropical wave. This is not the case as the Air Force Reconnaissance Plane still finds a closed circulation. Chantal will have a very difficult time over the next 24 hours as she will be interacting with land masses and an unfavorable environment with increased wind shear.
…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 335 MI…535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES
As Chantal has weakened, her westward progression has increased as well. Weaker storms a lot of times are influenced by the Bermuda High over the Central Atlantic and it will steer these storms west along its edge. Chantal’s track has been shifted farther to the west by the NHC, but they are till expecting her to make a more northward turn. It does appear she will impact the Southeast U.S. and it looks as though the greatest threat from Chantal will be very heavy rainfall. There is still a lot of time to watch this storm.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
EATIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH…46 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DESCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…CHANTAL
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TONIGHT
AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB…29.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING…AND REACH HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE…ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES…WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
RAINFALL…CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA…AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.