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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for February, 2014

Showers Moving Out to the East

| 10:10 pm February 28, 2014

After a pretty nice Friday afternoon across Central Alabama, which saw highs top out near 60F, showers have been moving across the state tonight. Rainfall amounts have been light, generally less than one tenth of an inch. The showers are diminishing and moving to the east late tonight.

Click image to enlarge.

Click image to enlarge.

Mild temperatures are in store across the area today, which even nicer readings in store for tomorrow. But even though we turn the page today to March and to meteorological spring, don’t count your chickens just yet. Winter has a few more reminders left that it is officially not out the door until March 22 by the calendar, including some colder weather this week.

With a good supply of sunshine Saturday, temperatures will warm well into the 60s. Highs will generally warm into the middle 60s from US-78/280 northeastward, with upper 60s and even a couple of 70 degree readings possible in places like Livingston and Demopolis. Lows Saturday night will barely make it into the middle and upper 40s.

IF YOU LIKE SATURDAY, YOU WILL LOVE SUNDAY: It doesn’t get much better than the weather we expect Sunday here in Alabama. With a good supply of sunshine under partly cloudy skies, highs will warm into the middle 70s. That’s right, you heard it: 70s. Go outside and roll around in the grass like a puppy! But change will not be far away, even as you are frolicking.

It comes in the form a a big load of heavy, cold air that will be making its way over the border from Canada into the northern and Central Plains. This cold air is behind all of the mischief to our north. By Sunday night, the cold front will be moving into the Northwest part of Alabama. Showers and some thunderstorms will push into the state starting late Sunday afternoon and progressing southeastward through the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts won’t be especially heavy, averaging around one half inch, with some one inch amounts possible.

IMPORTANT HEADS UP IF YOU’RE DRIVING NORTH: It is hard to imagine that while we are talking about 70s here in Alabama, Winter Storm Watches are posted not very far to our north. Places from eastern Kansas and Oklahoma across all of Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee, much of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and all of Kentucky into western Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

A major, crippling ice storm is expected across much of Kentucky with a quarter of an inch to one half of ice expected to accumulate. To the north, heavy snow is expected. 10-14 inches of snow will fall across North Central Ohio, which 6-8 inches around Cincinnati The snow will fall on top of a thin layer of freezing rain. St. Louis is expecting 5 inches of snow, and around 7-10 inches around Indianapolis. If you are traveling north into these areas starting Saturday night through Monday, please check the latest forecasts and warnings.

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Click image to enlarge.

TORNADO WARNING TONIGHT:
The NWS in Sacramento issued a tornado warning tonight about 8:30 p.m. CST for a storm northwest of Sacramento. A funnel cloud and lowering did pass over I-5 near Woodland, but I have not seen any indication that a tornado touched down.

It Never Rains in Southern California, But…

| 7:24 pm February 28, 2014

Seems it never rains in southern California
Seems I’ve often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California
But girl don’t they warn ya
It pours, man it pours

So sang Albert Hammond in his top five 1972 hit “It Never Rains in Southern California”. Today’s weather has disproved the thesis from the first line of the chorus, but the last line is ringing true today.

Indeed, severe weather has been occurring this afternoon in an unusual place: Southern California.

A rare slight risk severe weather outlook was in effect all day along the coastal areas of southern California, including Los Angeles and San Diego. The new 01z issuance (7 p.m. CST) removed the risk area.

There have been a number of severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings issued by National Weather Service offices like San Diego, Hanford and Los Anegles (Oxnard).

In fact, a severe thunderstorm warning just expired for parts of the City of San Diego.

Here was the a regional radar showing the warning polygon at the time the warning was issued:

Click image to enlarge.

Click image to enlarge.

There have been numerous reports of flooding and debris flows over roads in that region.

A plane was moved 3 feet at the John Wayne Airport in Orange County by a microburst. There was jet bridge damage. The official ASOS at the airport recorded 35 mph. A nearby wind observation recorded 74 mph wind gust.

While the weather might, be an inconvenience to some, most folks are rejoicing at the rain, with exceptional drought affecting much of that area.

Weekend Warm-Up Ahead

| 3:39 pm February 28, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SOME RAIN TONIGHT: All is quiet across Alabama this afternoon with sunshine through high clouds, and temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 50s. Clouds will thicken this evening, and we will continue to mention a chance of showers tonight as a short wave west of the state moves through. Steep lapse rates mean some spots might even hear a little thunder, as a few elevated thunderstorms could form. The best chance of showers will come from about 6:00 this evening through 3:00 a.m. tomorrow. Rain amounts should be under 1/4 inch in most spots.

WARMER WEEKEND: The weekend looks rain-free with a mix of sun and clouds both days and a big warming trend. Expect a high in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow, and both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high of 75 degrees for Birmingham on Sunday. That won’t be a record, however… our record high for March 2 is 83 degrees set in 1976.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: A big mass of rain and thunderstorms will develop west of Alabama during the day Sunday; in fact SPC has parts of East Texas, much of Louisiana, and some of the adjacent states under the standard “slight risk” of severe storms Sunday.

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It is also interesting to note that in the cold air sector of this storm, snow and ice is expected to be a big problem all the way from East Oklahoma, Northern Arkansas, and East Kansas all the way to Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday.

Here in Alabama, we will just deal with rain. The best chance of rain will come from about midnight Sunday night through noon Monday. The air will be stable, and while some thunder is possible, severe weather is not expected. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely.

Monday will be sharply colder; I am beginning to get the idea we might hold in the chilly 40s all day over North and Central Alabama as colder air spills returns.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Tuesday morning will be cold with a low well down in the 20s, but we warm into the low 50s Tuesday afternoon. Then, rather vigorous cyclogenesis is expected in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. This will spread rain back into Alabama, with the best chance of wet weather coming Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday morning. If we would have Arctic air in place, this would be a great snow setup for North Alabama, but thickness values look way too warm, and we are just forecasting rain for now.

Drier air will return late in the week on Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the kids at Vincent Elementary today… I had the honor of reading “Cat In The Hat” for Read Across America Day. Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Red Flag Warning for Much of Alabama Today

| 10:20 am February 28, 2014

Many of the counties in Central and South Alabama are under a Red Flag Warning today. Red Flag Warning criteria is different for each weather office, but all counties in the NWS Birmingham CWA, most of the Alabama counties covered by NWS Mobile, as well all Alabama counties covered by NWS Tallahassee have met the criteria for a warning today.

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A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND OR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED…ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FIRE CONDITIONS…PLEASE
CONTACT THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION AT
WWW.FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV.

* LOCATIONS: MARION…LAMAR…FAYETTE…WINSTON…WALKER…BLOUNT…ETOWAH…CALHOUN…
CHEROKEE…CLEBURNE…PICKENS…TUSCALOOSA…JEFFERSON…SHELBY…ST. CLAIR…
TALLADEGA…CLAY…RANDOLPH…SUMTER…GREENE…HALE…PERRY…BIBB…CHILTON…
COOSA…TALLAPOOSA…CHAMBERS…MARENGO…DALLAS…AUTAUGA…LOWNDES…ELMORE…
MONTGOMERY…MACON…BULLOCK…LEE…RUSSELL…PIKE…BARBOUR…CHOCTAW…CLARKE…
WILCOX…MONROE…CONECUH…BUTLER…CRENSHAW…ESCAMBIA…COVINGTON…COFFEE…DALE…
GENEVA…HENRY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.

Weekend Warm-Up Ahead

| 6:05 am February 28, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD START: Vic Bell, our Skywatcher at Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden), reports 16 degrees at daybreak; up the road Fort Payne is at 19. Most of the larger cities along I-20 are in the mid 20s with a clear sky.

The day ahead will feature a partly sunny sky with a high in the upper 50s.

SOME RAIN TONIGHT: A short wave along with a surface warm front will bring the risk of showers to Alabama tonight. The high resolution NAM hints the best chance of showers will come from 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m.; the moisture will be pretty limited, so rain amounts should be rather light and spotty.

WARMER WEEKEND: We head for the mid 60s tomorrow, followed by low to mid 70s Sunday as the warm-up begins and we kick off meteorological spring. The weekend looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. However, clouds will thicken Sunday night, and rain could advance into the state ahead of the next storm system.

Sure looks like the main window for rain will come from about midnight Sunday night through noon Monday. The last few model runs have been a little drier, hinting at around 1/2 inch of rain for North-Central Alabama. Some thunder is possible, but severe weather is not expected.

NEXT WEEK: After the rain moves out Monday afternoon, colder air moves back into the state, but the GFS and the ECMWF have continued to back off on the intensity of the cold air for Alabama. We will drop into the upper 20s early Tuesday, followed by a high in the low to mid 50s Tuesday afternoon. A high near 60 degrees is possible Wednesday as the seriously cold air stays north of Alabama.

And, that is a good thing since models show a significant Gulf of Mexico low pressure center impacting our state with a big rain event Thursday. If we had cold air in place, that could have been a setup for a big late season snow. But, thickness values support all rain for Alabama.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be at Vincent Elementary School in Shelby County today for Read Across America Day… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Warmer Days Are Ahead For Alabama

| 2:01 pm February 27, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; I am on the road headed to Oxford for tonight’s Storm Alert 2014 at Oxford High School**

BLUE SKY: Hard to find a decent cloud in the Alabama sky today. Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 40s at mid-afternoon, and dewpoints are very low, meaning the air is very dry. Birmingham’s dewpoint at 1:00 p.m. was only 9 degrees.

Tonight will be cold again; most places will see a low in the mid to upper 20s early tomorrow, although a few of the colder pockets could see upper teens again.

TOMORROW: The warming trend continues. With a partly sunny sky the high will be in the mid 50s. Clouds thicken late in the day, and some light is possible late tomorrow night thanks to a northward moving warm front. Best chance of rain comes from about 10:00 p.m. tomorrow until 7:00 a.m. Saturday; rain amounts should be less than 1/4 inch.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be generally cloudy, although the sun could break out at times during the afternoon. We reach the mid to upper 60s Saturday, followed by low 70s Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. Showers could reach the state Sunday night, however.

NEXT WEEK: A good rain event is likely on Monday with amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch. Some thunder is possible with steep lapse rates, but severe weather is not expected. Much colder air will follow the rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not sure the 12Z model runs have a really good grasp on the situation; I figure the high will drop into the 40s Tuesday, and lows down the 20s are likely early Wednesday, with teens for the colder valleys.

STORM ALERT 2014 IN OXFORD TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness show continues this week… we will be at Oxford High School tonight. The shows begin at 6:30; doors open at 5:00. Come meet the ABC 33/40 Weather Team, get some cool free stuff, see some great weather stories, and learn how to keep your family safe during the tornado season. Keep in mind the spring tornado season begins in just a few days (March, April, May). Hope to see you there.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at the new Forest Oaks Elementary in Chelsea… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow evening at 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here early tomorrow by 7:00 a.m….

Your Weekly Drought Monitor Update

| 9:30 am February 27, 2014

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show very dry conditions across the Western U.S., with California suffering from the worst conditions. Many areas west of the Mississippi River are either abnormally dry or are suffering from some sort of drought condition. East of the Mississippi River, much better conditions, with only a few abnormally dry areas. The only exceptions east of the Mississippi River suffering from drought conditions are portions of Illinois and Wisconsin. Yesterday and today, showers and a few storms have been occurring throughout Central California and the Great Basin, so they may offer some relief in those areas.

2-27-2014 8-14-10 AM

Now for Alabama, there are just a few abnormally dry areas, and over the last week those have shrunk some as we’ve had a few rounds of rain. Two swathes are suffering from these conditions, areas across northwestern and southwestern Alabama, but no area of the state is currently experiencing a drought. In northwestern Alabama, portions of Marion, Colbert, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, and Limestone counties are seeing these abnormally dry conditions. For southwestern areas of the state, portions of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Conecuh, and Covington counties are abnormally dry. Since last week, the abnormally dry conditions have decreased 1.22% statewide, which isn’t a lot, but every little bit helps.

2-27-2014 8-14-58 AM

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Warming Trend Begins This Afternoon

| 6:00 am February 27, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FEBRUARY MAKING US SHIVER: Here is a look at some temperatures across the great state of Alabama just before sunrise…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 14
Haleyville 15
Fayette 18
Decatur 19
Huntsville 20
Pleasant Grove 21
Trussville 22
Birmingham-Shuttlesworth Airport 23

The sky is clear, and the day ahead will feature a sunny sky with a high in the 47-51 degree range for most communities.

Tonight will be cold again; the low early tomorrow will be in the 20s.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The day tomorrow will be dry with a partly sunny sky, and we reach the mid to upper 50s by afternoon. But clouds will thicken tomorrow night as a warm front pushes through the state, and the models are a little more aggressive with the chance of rain associated with this feature. Looks like the best chance of rain will come from about 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Saturday. Amounts of 1/4 inch can be expected.

Then, we might see a little sunshine Saturday afternoon as the warm front pushes north of here, and the warm-up continues with a high in the 60s. Sunday will be even warmer with a high in the low 70s along with a mix of sun and clouds. A few showers could move into the state Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK: Monday continues to look wet, with rain likely ahead of the next push of cold air. A few thunderstorms could be involved, but at this point it doesn’t look like a severe weather setup. Then, sharply colder air returns to Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00Z GFS has backed off on the intensity of the cold air, but I believe it is wrong. Earlier runs suggested we might have a hard time getting out of the 30s Tuesday, and that idea is very credible. We might even make a run for record low temperatures by daybreak Wednesday.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

STORM ALERT 2014 IN OXFORD TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness show continues this week… we will be at Oxford High School tonight. The shows begin at 6:30; doors open at 5:00. Come meet the ABC 33/40 Weather Team, get some cool free stuff, see some great weather stories, and learn how to keep your family safe during the tornado season. Keep in mind the spring tornado season begins in just a few days (March, April, May). Hope to see you there.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Forest Oaks Elementary in Chelsea… then it is off to Oxford for tonight’s Storm Alert 2014. I won’t be able to produce an afternoon video due to travel, but I will post forecast notes by 4:00. Enjoy the day!