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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Archive for February 14th, 2014

Earthquake in GA/SC

| 9:40 pm February 14, 2014

A fairly strong earthquake occurred around 9:25 p.m. CST across northern Georgia and South Carolina. It was felt in Columbia and Atlanta as well as Athens.

One eyewitness familiar with quakes said it seemed to be about 4.5 in magnitude, lasted about 10 seconds and was of the rolling variety.

Here is the USGS report showing magnitude 4.4

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Lots of reports on Twitter and FB about it.

Rainy Valentine’s Night

| 8:57 pm February 14, 2014

A rainy Valentine’s night is in progress across Central Alabama as a strong upper level trough and cold front approach the state.

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A shield of rain and embedded thunder is pushing across the middle of the state. At this hour, it is mainly east of I-59.

An upper level disturbance appears to be passing just south of Birmingham, showing a little bit of spin as it lopes east southeast.

There were a few flashes of lightning across the area, and even some pea sized hail in Marion.

The heaviest rain has fallen in an arc from Tuscaloosa County up through Fayette, Walker, western and northern Jefferson, Blount and St. Clair counties. Radar estimates indicated that one half to one inch amounts were common, with some amounts in excess of that. Areas near I-20 in St. Clair County between Moody and Pell City picked up between one and two inches.

The rainfall total at the Birmingham Airport was approaching one half inch at 8:45.

Our cold front has passed Columbus MS and Muscle Shoals. Temperatures fall quickly back into the 40s behind the front.

A second front has passed Memphis. Temperatures are in the 30s behind it. So by morning, readings across the area will range from the middle 20s over the Northwest to the lower 30s from Clanton to Alex City. Expect upper 20s in the I-59 corridor.

Tomorrow will feature clearing skies, but chilly temperatures in the upper 40s.

But take heart. highs on Sunday will rebound nicely into he lower 60s.

A Little Thunder in Eastern Mississippi

| 5:51 pm February 14, 2014

All afternoon, we have been wondering if there would be any thunder with the activity coming out of Mississippi into Alabama tonight.

We have gotten our answer in the past few minutes as lightning has developed from north of Yazoo City up to Aberdeen.

Click image to enlarge.

Click image to enlarge.

A thunderstorm was being reported at Starkville on the last observation. The lightning count appears to be increasing and reflectivities on the radar are edging up as well, especially between Ackerman and Starkville. The storms around Columbus are entering Lamar County near Sulligent.

I would say that it is hard to imagine, with temperatures in the 50F degree range with dewpoints in the mid 40s, but we already saw lightning occur this week in the snow. All it takes is a little instability.

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You can see a little instability (CAPE values250-500 j/kg) over parts of northern Mississippi and Louisiana. The instability is courtesy of some very cold temperatures aloft associated with an approaching upper level trough. Temperatures at about 10,000 feet are 7C, while at 18,000 feet they are -23C. This results in lapse rates approaching -6.5 degrees. That is slightly unstable.

While you won’t see any severe weather from these storms, there will be a little thunder over western Alabama it appears this evening.

Rain Tonight; Cooler Air Follows Tomorrow

| 2:37 pm February 14, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am live from the Home and Garden Show at the BJCC on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00**

RAIN TONIGHT: A band of showers will move through Alabama tonight ahead of a clipper and the associated cold front… here is the HRRR model output valid at 8pm CT

hrrr_ref_birmingham_9

The NAM is printing 0.29″ for Birmingham… we figure most places will see somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 inch. The main window for rain comes between 5:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m… the rain should be out of here by midnight.

OUR WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be sunny, but colder with a high only in the mid 40s. Some places up near the Tennessee border might have a difficult time getting out of the 30s. A nice warming trend begins Sunday as we enjoy a high near 60 degrees along with a good supply of sunshine.

SPRING PREVIEW NEXT WEEK: We reach the mid 60s Monday, and low 70s are likely Tuesday through Friday. Some places might even see mid 70s… the last time we hit 70 (in Birmingham) was December 22, 2013. There will be decent pool of low level moisture around here, so we could see a few showers; the 12Z hints the best chance could come Monday night/Tuesday morning, and then again at the end of the week.

LONG RANGE: The GFS still shows a big rain/storm event on Sunday February 23, followed by a quick hitting pop of cold air.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the third graders at Oak Grove Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday; my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!

Showers Early Tonight; Spring-Like Next Week

| 6:04 am February 14, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD FRONT ON THE WAY: A clipper type system will push a cold front into Alabama tonight. Ahead of the front, clouds will increase today. But, the warm-up continues as we climb into the upper 50s. The best chance of showers will come from about 4:00 until 10:00 p.m.; rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are likely. All of the rain will exit the area by midnight.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Colder air drops into the state tomorrow, keep in mind the air will be coming across a big snow pack, and often models can print temperatures that are too warm. They now have Birmingham in the mid 40s tomorrow, which sounds about right. But, some communities up over the Tennessee Valley might have a hard time getting out of the 30s. The good news is that the sky will be sunny, which will make the cold air feel a little better.

Sunday promises to be a beautiful day with ample sunshine and a high around 60 degrees after starting the day around freezing.

SPRING-LIKE WEATHER NEXT WEEK: We reach the mid 60s Monday, and low 70s are likely every day for the rest of the week as we finally get a break from cold weather. A weakening front could kick off a shower Monday night, but with warm air aloft showers should be light and spotty.

A pool of moist air will stay in place Tuesday through Friday, and a shower is possible on just about any of those days, but there is little dynamic support for rain, and showers should be few and far between.

The GFS has been very consistent with the idea of a strong cold front moving through on Sunday February 23 with a band of showers and storms, followed by a short lived shot of cold air on Monday February 24. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Time to get back on my schedule… I have a weather program this morning at Oak Grove Elementary School in West Jefferson County; then later today I will be live from the Home and Garden Show at the BJCC at 4, 5, and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Won’t be able to produce an afternoon Weather Xtreme video, but I will post a new discussion here by 4:00. Enjoy the day….