Archive for January 3rd, 2017

Cold Air On The Way; Winter Mischief?

| January 3, 2017 @ 3:07 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are mostly in the 60s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon, and we are seeing breaks in the overcast with some sun breaking through.

COLDER DAYS AHEAD: Colder air begins to roll into Alabama tonight; many communities across North Alabama will hold in the 40s tomorrow with a chilly north wind, and like today the sky will feature more clouds than sun. Thursday will cool and dry with a partly sunny sky; the high Thursday afternoon will be in the low 50s.

ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY: The next phase of the big chill arrives at the end of the week; most North/Central Alabama communities will hold in the 30s all day with a cloudy sky. And, with an approaching upper trough and developing low in the northern Gulf, the stage is set for some winter weather issues for the Deep South.

New global model data remains inconsistent; the American global model paints a strip of heavier snow across Central Alabama, while the European shows lighter snow mainly over North Alabama. The new 18Z NAM model (North American Mesoscale) tends to support the European idea.

Forecast model soundings show the atmosphere will be certainly cold enough for snow over the the northern third of the state, with rain for the southern counties. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow is possible in the middle of the state.

Undestand we are dealing with an event several days away, and it simply too early to draw conclusions about accumulation potential, and the placement of snow. Just be aware that some accumulating snow is possible for the northern half of Alabama Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday, and there could be some travel impact.

With each day the forecast will be more certain, and more specific. And, be sure and check the blog often for updates; you won’t want to have old information if you need to travel across Alabama or the Deep South late this week. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

THE WEEKEND: Cold air will stay in place after the departing storm system; expect a clearing sky Saturday with a high only in the mid to upper 30s; Sunday will be sunny with a high between 40 and 44. Early morning lows will be close to 20 degrees, with teens likely for colder spots early Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS is printing a low of 19 degrees for Birmingham early Monday; then we start to warm up, and mid 50s are possible by Tuesday afternoon. For now the first half of the week will be dry.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

The Sun Is Peeking Through The Clouds At Midday

| January 3, 2017 @ 1:13 pm

Other Than Clouds, A Nice Midday Across The Area
After the storms pushed through last night, the weather at this time is not that bad across the area. Skies are mostly cloudy across Central Alabama, and no rain is showing up on radar. Remnants of last night’s rainfall is currently located in southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida.

Rainfall totals were pretty impressive from last night’s event. A few record 24-hour rainfall totals for January 2nd were even broken…

  • Anniston 2.39 in (old record was 2.31 in – 1944)
  • Birmingham 1.66 in
  • Montgomery 4.21 in (old record was 3.54 in – 1911)
  • Tuscaloosa 2.88 in (old record was 1.72 in – 1966)
  • Calera 2.45 in
  • Troy 5.64 in

Temperatures Across Central Alabama
Temperatures at 12:40 PM are ranging throughout the 60s across Central Alabama. The warm spot is currently Eufaula at 68 degrees. The cool spot is currently Alexander City at 60 degrees.

Birmingham’s Climatology And Records
The normal high for January 3rd is 53, while the normal low is 33. The record high for today was set back in 2005 at 74 degrees. The record low was set back in 1928 at 8 degrees.

Weather For The Remainder Of The Day
For the afternoon hours, skies will be mostly cloudy, but the sun will be able to peek through from time to time. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s across the area from north to south. Mostly cloudy skies, and for the extreme northern parts of the area, there is a very small risk for a few sprinkles or a stray shower. The rest of the area will be dry. A few spots in the extreme southern parts of the area may have to deal with some patchy fog. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to the low 50s from north to south. A few colder spots could drop down into the 30s.

Wednesday Forecast
It will be a mostly cloudy and much cooler day on Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to the upper 50s across the area from north to south. For the evening and overnight hours, skies will begin to clear out some, especially over the southern 2/3rds of the area. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s across the area.

Headed To The Beach
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies from now through Thursday, with showers possible on Friday and Saturday. Sunny skies return to finish out the weekend and to start next week. See the complete Gulf Coast 7-Day Planner here..

On This Day In Weather History: 1777
An overnight freeze enabled George Washington and his troops to flank the British at Trenton, cross their lines at Princeton, and seek security in the hills of northern New Jersey.

Central Alabama Chapter Of The NWA
The Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association will be hosting famed engineer and storm chaser Tim Marshall. He will speak at Vulcan Museum on the evening of Tuesday, January 24th. This is an event you won’t want to miss. Look for details on the chapter’s website.

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Forecaster: Scott Martin (Twitter: @scottmartinwx)

Winter Storm Potential Late This Week

| January 3, 2017 @ 6:34 am

WILD MONDAY: Unfortunately we had four fatalities in Alabama from the storms yesterday and last night; all of the deaths came at Rehobeth, in Houston County just south of Dothan. NWS survey teams will be in that area this morning to determine the size of the tornado. There was also considerable damage at Gulf Shores from a possible tornado, and some places had over 6 inches of rain. For a time Jackson, in Clarke County, was under a flash flood emergency.

Today will be much calmer, but clouds will linger for much of the day with a chance of a little drizzle or light rain in spots early this morning. It will be a mild January day with a high around 70 degrees.

COLDER AIR ROLLS IN TOMORROW: A gusty north wind will usher in much colder air; many North Alabama communities will hold in the 40s all day; the sky will remain generally cloudy with only a limited amount of sunshine. And, by Thursday morning we will drop below freezing with a low in the 28-32 degree range. The day Thursday will be cool and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 50s.

ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY: Some of the coldest air so far this season arrives Friday; the GFS is printing a high of only 36 degrees for Birmingham with an increasingly cloudy sky. And, as a wave of low pressure forms near the Gulf Coast, the stage is set for winter weather issues for the northern half of Alabama.

POTENTIAL WINTER STORM: We all know we have a limited skill set in dealing with wintry precipitation in Alabama, especially four days in advance. So there is no way to be extremely specific now, but with all global models on board, we can’t ignore the potential.

WHAT WE CAN TELL YOU NOW: There is a decent chance of accumulating snow or sleet somewhere over the northern half of Alabama Friday afternoon, Friday night, and into early Saturday morning. However, it is simply too early to forecast accumulation amounts, or exact placement.

Temperatures should fall well below freezing Friday night, meaning this has potential to be a “high impact” event with travel woes. This system will also have potential to impact other states across the southern U.S…

I usually draw up the first “accumulation potential” map once we get within 48 hours of an event, and that will be tomorrow night. For now, we can just tell you confidence is growing in the potential for a winter storm that could impact parts of North and Central Alabama. Stay tuned, and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

Sunday will be cold and dry with a high in the 40-45 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The first part of the week looks dry with a slow warming trend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!