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The Latest Thoughts on Today’s Severe Weather

| March 24, 2016 @ 9:26 am

Once again, a complex severe weather threat is facing us here across Central Alabama on this late March day.

It has been a calm morning across the area so far, but the atmosphere is changing across the state.

Click image to enlarge.

Click image to enlarge.

After an active night with hail and tornadoes across the eastern half of Texas and the western parts of Arkansas, a line of storms associated with a cold front is weakening across northern Mississippi. Currently there are no watches and warning in effect, but that could be changing soon over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi according to the SPC.

A low level jet, or wind maximum at about 5,000 feet is strengthening over Mississippi at this hour. It is pumping lots of warm, moist Gulf air northeastward. This has been producing increasing showers in a thin ribbon from Lafayette, LA up to Meridian MS and into West Alabama’s Lamar, Pickens and Sumter Counties.

Some of these cells have risen high enough in the atmosphere to produce lightning. Lightning strikes have been detected near Sulligent in Lamar County and near Aliceville in Pickens County. Stronger storms are back over Mississippi from Scooba to Meridian and on into Louisiana.

The storms are elevated, meaning their source of instability is not from near the surface, but rather in that river of warm, moist air above the surface, so they aren’t a big threat to become severe. For the next couple of hours, that should remain the case as they will be moving into more stable air.

But those dewpoints in the 60s over southern Mississippi will translate eastward into Alabama through the morning and more widespread thunderstorms will be possible. These stronger storms will overspread western Alabama between 10 a.m. and noon, reaching Tuscaloosa before 11 a.m. and Birmingham before noon. Surface based instability will be low, and the clouds and rain will limit further destabilization by the means of the sun, so these storms should mainly stay below severe limits. Can’t rule out a few warnings for damaging winds however.

hrrr_2016032412_ref_birmingham

Meanwhile, there will be some destabilization on the back side of this over Mississippi through the morning and storms from last night will re-intensify. By noon, these storms will extend across eastern Mississippi from Columbus to Meridian and will move into West Alabama shortly thereafter. They should reach Tuscaloosa by 1:30 and Birmingham by 2:30 and Anniston/Gadsden between 330-4 p.m.

This activity should limit instability for areas north of I-20, but for areas south of I-20 and west of I-65, instability values will be over 1,000 joules/kg. Shear values should be ramping down however, which is in our favor. But, there appears to be a decent upper level disturbance over Louisiana that will swing northeast into Mississippi.

So, there will be a threat for severe weather with this main line early through mid-afternoon. There is lots of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which can enhance the damaging wind threat. We can’t rule out a couple of tornadoes as backed surface winds associated with any surface reflection of the upper disturbance could enhance low level helicity. Hail is also a possibility.

Finally, there could be redevelopment ahead of the cold front over West Alabama between 4-6 p.m. This activity will affect Jasper by 5 p.m., Tuscaloosa by 530-6 p.m. and Birmingham between 6-7 p.m. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with this activity.

Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if the need arises. Have your plan of action and your readiness kit ready to go if you are included in a polygon. Don’t hesitate if you are placed under a warning. Get to your place of safety and stay until the warning has either expired or cancelled.

After the threat has passed tonight, decent conditions are in store for Friday and Saturday. Friday, skies will begin to clear out during the late morning to early afternoon hours, with highs reaching the middle 60s. Saturday will be sunny and warmer, with highs reaching the middle 70s. Unfortunately, rain is in the forecast for Easter Sunday. The rain may hold off enough until after early morning services are complete. After that, rain and a few claps of thunder is expected, with highs reaching the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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