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Severe Weather Forecast Appears to be on Track

| March 24, 2016 @ 11:18 am

As the severe weather threat moves closer to the state, there are no watches or warnings in effect at this time.

Base reflectivity on the left showing precipitation with cloud tops on right, showing the locations of the strongest thunderstorm cells in West Alabama.

Base reflectivity on the left showing precipitation with cloud tops on right, showing the locations of the strongest thunderstorm cells in West Alabama.

CURRENTLY
A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are making its way across west and central Alabama, stretching from Cullman and Winston counties, down to the southwest through Walker, Tuscaloosa, Greene, Pickens, Sumter, and Hale counties, and exiting the state through Choctaw and Washington counties in Southwest Alabama. A thunderstorm was located near Eutaw in Greene county, and another located in southwestern Tuscaloosa county near Fosters. Lightning is also starting to pick up in central to eastern Tuscaloosa county near the Jefferson county line. The line is slowly progressing to the east as the individual cells in the line are moving to the northeast at 45-50 MPH..

Temperatures across the state are showing 64 for Birmingham, with lower 60s in the northern third of the state, and middle 60s for the central portions. The warmest observation was Mobile with a temperature of 72. Winds are out of the south-southeast averaging 10-15 MPH across the state, with a few gusts up to 35 MPH. The Birmingham Airport had a peak wind gust of 35 MPH at 10:31 AM.

LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
The line of showers and storms will push out of the Jasper, Cullman, Tuscaloosa areas around noon and will affect the Birmingham area between now and 1 p.m. They will affect Gadsden and Pell City around 1 p.m. and Anniston by 2 p.m. They will be weaker as they head into East Alabama. These storms will not be severe, but they will have lots of lightning associated with them.

ROUND 2
Storms over North Central Mississippi now should start reaching West Alabama’s Marion, Lamar and Pickens Counties by 1 p.m. They will reach Jasper/Tuscaloosa around 2 p.m., Birmingham before 3 p.m., Pell City and Talladega by 4 p.m. and Anniston after 4:30.

Areas south of I-20 should have around 1,000-1,500 joules of CAPE to work with and some low level helicity, so a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with this activity. Everyone will want to be alert to that possibility, along with the threat for damaging winds and hail as well.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
We will be watching areas from northwest of Meridian into Sumter and Greene Counties around 3-4 p.m. for more storms to develop ahead of the cold front. The front should be passing through Columbus MS about that time.

By 4:30-5:30, more storms will develop over West Alabama and these will have to be watched as they move into Tuscaloosa and Jasper by 6 p.m. and the Birmingham area by 7 p.m.

Anything south of I-20 to US-80 from Demopolis to Montgomery to Auburn will have to watch out during the late afternoon and early evening for the possibility of all modes of severe weather including tornadoes.

CHECK YOUR PLAN
Now is a good time to review your severe weather safety plan and think about where you will be this afternoon and evening. Have a way to receive warnings and know what you will do if one is issued.

SCHOOLS
Some schools are shutting down their after school activities. Winfield City Schools closed at 11 a.m. Check with your local system to confirm their plans.

NEXT UPDATE
We will have our next update by 12:30 p.m.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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