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More Summer Storms Fire Up Later Today

| July 11, 2016 @ 6:23 am

UNSETTLED SUMMER WEATHER: An upper low is centered just northwest of Alabama, and that feature will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight across the state. Like recent days, the storms could be strong, and the Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe weather. The main threats are wet microbursts (small scale areas of damaging straight line wind), and lightning, which can be almost non-stop in the stronger afternoon storms.

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The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about 50/50. I usually have dozens of people ask if their neighborhood or community will see rain. I answer the same thing very time… summer storms are totally random and scattered, and there is no way of knowing in advance where and when they pop up on summer afternoons in Alabama. Like yesterday, some will see heavy rain today, others nothing. And, this morning, no meteorologist, TV station, computer model, or weather knows where it will rain at any specific time or place this afternoon… there simply is no skill.

The high today will be in the 88-92 degree range for most communities.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change, but the upper low will slowly open up and dissipate, and showers and storms will thin out a bit later this week. Heat levels rise a bit, with low to mid 90s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It’s the standard July forecast; partly sunny, hot, humid, with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A persistence forecast is best. No chance in the summer pattern. Hot, humid days, a partly sunny sky, and a passing shower or storm each afternoon in scattered spots. Highs 92-95.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS keeps advertising a big upper high building over the region, which could mean heat levels rising, and rain chances lowering. But, the European isn’t as bullish, and keeps us in the same type pattern with scattered afternoon storms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet thanks to dry air, and tropical storm development is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: Very classic summer pattern from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily with the risk of a passing shower or storm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 87 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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