Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Midday Nowcast: Storms Moving In And Could Pack A Punch

| July 14, 2016 @ 12:27 pm

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AT THIS HOUR: For pretty much the northern half of the state, skies are generally clear, except for a big mass of clouds moving into the northwestern corner of the state. For the southern half, mostly clear skies with a few cumulus clouds floating around.

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RADAR CHECK: With those clouds up in the northwestern corner of the state, thunderstorms are associated with them. A line of storms are stretching from east-central Kentucky down through central Tennessee, clipping the northwestern corner of Alabama, and rapping around through the northern parts of Mississippi. There are Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in effect for parts of the line in Tennessee, and one in northeastern Mississippi, mostly for damaging straight line wind gusts and quarter-size hail. These storms are currently pushing to the east at 25 MPH. Storms are developing directly in front of the line, and pretty intense lightning is being experienced with these.

Latest complete run of the HRRR has these storms pushing into the western counties of Central Alabama this afternoon around the 2-4PM time frame and into the Birmingham area during the 3-5PM time frame. This is contingent on the line holding together. There is another batch of storms associated with a MCS, back in Oklahoma currently, that may approach the western counties sometime in the 8PM-Midnight time frame.

Isolated showers have formed along and south of the I-20 & I-59 corridor in southwest Alabama. These appear to be stationary, with a slight drift to the south. These look more like your normal summertime showers.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: A good range of 80s out there currently, with some stations reporting low 80s, some reporting upper 80s, and most reporting mid 80s. Here is a list of temperature observations from across the state:

Birmingham 86
Tuscaloosa 86
Gadsden 84
Anniston 85
Cullman 83
Decatur 85
Huntsville 87
Muscle Shoals 89
Alexander City 88
Montgomery 87

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WHAT TO EXPECT FOR TODAY: Mostly sunny skies for a good while, with showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could pack a punch, and the SPC believes that will be the case. A good bit of central and southern Alabama is defined in “marginal risk,” with the northwestern third of the state in a “slight risk” for severe storms. Damaging winds, some hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning being the main threats. Localized flash flooding with a few of the cells in this line could be possible, as PWAT values are at 1.5 inches. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

CODE GREEN AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Green” for both ozone and particulate matter 2.5. No actions to take.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for July 14th is 91, while the normal low is 70. The record high for today was set back in 1980 at 103. The record low was set back in 1967 at 57.

FRIDAY’S WEATHER: During the overnight and early morning hours, we could be dealing with what is left of a MCS, so showers and storms are possible before sunrise. After that, a surface front will be just north of here providing low level convergence, so numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected. The northern third of the state has been defined in a “marginal risk” for severe storms tomorrow, so some of these could pack a punch. Chances are about 50/50 on any one spot receiving rainfall. Afternoon highs will be held back into the upper 80s to just over 90 due to clouds and rain.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Very routine summer weather continues on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through next week. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily, and yes, you will deal with a passing storm from time to time. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the next five days.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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