Tropics Take Center Stage

It’s a warm and humid last Sunday of August across Central Alabama. Temperatures are approaching 90F at the noon hour, heading toward highs between 91F-94F. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values are in the middle and upper 90s.

Skies are partly cloudy and regional radars are mostly quiet. High pressure at the surface and aloft is pretty much putting the kibosh on any showers and storms. A few isolated ones will form over a few lucky spots and continue into the mid-evening hours.

If you find yourself under one, count your lucky stars, then watch out for lightning!

QUICK CHECK ON THE TROPICS

…Gaston is a 105 mph hurricane east of Bermuda. It is drifting WNW but should recurve before affecting the island.

…99L is passing through the Florida Straits this afternoon. A circulation center is evident south of the Florida Keys. Key West NAS has a NE wind at 14 gusting 23 mph. The models believe 99L will become a tropical depression over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS moves it out into the Middle Gulf by late Tuesday before turning it northeast toward the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula by next weekend. That would have little impact on Alabama’s weather, just some rough surf and showers and storms along the Gulf Coast. The European run from last night also depicts a move toward the Big Bend area of Florida. The Canadian does carry it to the Mobile/Pensacola area by Thursday night. It is too early to tell what specific course might occur or how strong it will become. Suffice to say, we will be watching.

LONG TRACK CAPE VERDE STORM IN THE CARDS?

The models are predicting a long track hurricane will move across the Atlantic over the next two weeks. This is the GFS output for Tuesday morning the 13th.

Output has consistently carried it to the mid-Atlantic Coast, as far south as Jacksonville or up into Virginia. But the morning run of the GFS brings it across the Caribbean and into the GUlf of Mexico. We will also have to pay attention to that possibility.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Tropical