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Sneaky Showers Showing Up: Your Morning Xtreme Weather Video for Sunday, October 16 (really)

| October 16, 2016 @ 6:51 am

Saturday was a beautiful day across Central Alabama. Southeasterly flow around high pressure ridging southwestward along the East Coast resulted in low clouds in the morning and a nice collection of cumulus clouds during the day. Highs ranged from 82F at Auburn to 83F at Birmingham and Tuscaloosa to 84F at Calera.

A few showers started showing up on local radar during the evening hours, being shunted northward in that low level flow. At first glance, that seemed unusual since the upper level flow was clearly being dominated by a northwesterly flow around the trough that had cut off into an upper level low over Alabama. That northward movement clearly showed that the big surface high to the east was controlling them.

Switching to a map of precipitable water values, which most clearly depicts the amount of total moisture available in the atmosphere, we can see that the surface high was tapping some deep moisture over the tropical Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas. This moisture was streaming across the Florida Panhandle and Gulf of Mexico all the way into southeastern Alabama.

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All indications are that the faucet of moisture will slowly turn off today as the surface high shifts to a more west to east orientation. Before it dries up completely, a few showers will continue across Central Alabama, but the chance that you will see rainfall is very low unless you are in the US-80/I-85 Corridor. Highs today will be in the lower and middle 80s.

As we open the book on a new work week, upper level high pressure over the Bahamas and back to our west over Texas will link up and build over the Deep South. This will put the kibosh on rain chances and allow for warm and dry conditions. Not what we want to hear with the continued high wildfire danger across our state. Temperatures will be in the 80s, trending toward the middle and upper 80s in fact by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Things will begin to change by Wednesday afternoon. Some moisture will sneak back in, allowing for a few showers Wednesday afternoon. In addition, a trough over the Central Plains will be digging southeastward, bringing lift for our next rainfall event. Yes, I said rainfall event. A line of showers will push into Alabama late Thursday night through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts will only be around one half inch, but it will probably break the consecutive days without rain streak that now stands at 27 days. We’ve moved up a spot to #11!

Cool high pressure builds in for the weekend, giving us a real taste of fall. Highs on Saturday will struggle to get out of the 60s and the day will start with lower and middle 40s. There will even be a few 30s Sunday morning it appears. Sunday will be a nearly perfect day, with highs in the 70s and lots of sunshine.

In the voodoo department, a stronger system will bring showers and thunderstorms at month’s end, quite possibly falling during trick or treating time on Halloween night.

In the Atlantic, Nicole became a hurricane again yesterday. The storm has become a wind monster with a large wind field extending over much of the North Atlantic. It will lose tropical characteristics over the next couple of days as it races northward.

Heading to the Beach? Great idea! Could I interest you in highs in the middle 80s, lows in the middle 60s and lots of sunshine? I thought so! That’s what you can have through Wednesday before a few showers and storms show up Thursday and Friday. Much cooler conditions for the weekend. Water temperatures are cooling, with the reading this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab coming in at 76.8F.

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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