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Significant Severe Weather Threat Tonight

| November 29, 2016 @ 3:33 pm

Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and graphics associated with this discussion…

CLOSER LOOK AT TONIGHT’S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A dynamic weather system approaching Alabama from the west will bring potential for severe thunderstorms to our state tonight and tomorrow morning.

Dewpoints will continue to surge this evening, reaching the upper 60s by 9-10:00… this will set up a volatile airmass that is moist and unstable. Surface based CAPE values are expected to rise to near 1,500 j/kg, very adequate for severe weather in Alabama in the cool season.

SPC has upgraded the risk over parts of North and Central Mississippi to “moderate”… and a tornado watch is in effect to the west for parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.

In Alabama, an “enhanced” risk covers the northwest part of the state, with the standard “slight risk” down to Montgomery. The best combination of shear and instability will be in the “enhanced” risk area, and accordingly that is the highest tornado threat area as well.

stp

A few strong/violent tornadoes are possible across the “enhanced” risk area tonight.

The threat will shift to mostly damaging straight line winds with a squall line during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow.

TIMING: The main window for severe storms will open up around 8:00 tonight over Northwest Alabama… for Birmingham the squall line won’t arrive until after midnight.

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RAIN AMOUNTS: Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely over the next 36 hours, extremely beneficial for a parched state. Some minor flooding is possible during the heavier storms tonight.

CALL TO ACTION: We haven’t had active weather in a long time. Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed. And, since this active weather will come during the late night/pre-dawn hours, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed with a battery backup. A good warning app needs to be on your phone as well, like WeatherRadio by WDT.

And, you might want to review your “action plan” with the family just in case. Your safest place is a small room on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, and away from windows. You don’t have to be underground. And, if you live in a mobile home you have to get out, and into a safe place in a site built structure.

If by chance we go go into “wall to wall” severe weather coverage, you can watch us on the ABC 33/40 mobile apps…

ABC 33/40 iOS App
ABC 33/40 Android App

TOMORROW: Rain will end during the morning hours, with some clearing possible by afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady in the 60s, maybe even falling a few degrees during the day.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the 7A Alabama high school football championship game in Auburn tomorrow night (McGill-Toolen Catholic vs. Hoover)… the good news is that it now looks like most of the rain will be gone in time for the 7pm kickoff, just an outside chance of a lingering shower. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the game. Auburn will be rain-free for the rest of the games Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cool, dry weather with sunny days and clear nights; highs 57-60, with lows mostly in the 30s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be partly sunny with a high in the upper 50s, but the GFS brings rain back into Alabama Sunday. And, periods of rain will likely continue into early next week, through Tuesday. No severe storms expected this time, just more welcome rain.

New guidance from NOAA’s WPC suggests 3-5 inches of rain (not counting last night) around here over the next seven days…

wpc_total_precip_birmingham_28-1

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Stay tuned to the blog for frequent updates through the night… and here is the live stream from Storm Chaser 33/40, in the field tonight…

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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