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Rain This Morning; Stormy Tomorrow/Wednesday

| February 6, 2017 @ 6:28 am

RADAR CHECK: Rain is falling over parts of North/Central Alabama this morning thanks to slowly northward moving warm front…

The rain will taper off later this morning, and we expect only isolated showers this afternoon and tonight. We reach the mid 60s this afternoon with a cloudy sky.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW: SPC has about the northern third of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms tomorrow, with a “marginal risk” down into South Alabama.

A deep surface low will be over the Great Lakes tomorrow, between Chicago and Detroit, with a trailing cold front down to near Shreveport. This is supported by an upper trough; unstable air will move northward into parts of Alabama with afternoon temperatures reaching 70 degrees in many places.

Thunderstorms will move into Northwest Alabama late tomorrow morning, and we will have a good chance of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. While there will be a fair amount of shear across North Alabama, model guidance suggests instability values will be relatively low, with higher wind fields aloft and CAPE values remaining west of the state.

TIMING: The main window for strong to severe storms will come from 11:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m.

THREATS: The primary issues will come from strong straight line thunderstorm winds and hail; the tornado threat is low, but not zero.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to 1 inch where the heavier storms develop. Flooding is not expected.

MORE STORMS WEDNESDAY: SPC has all 67 Alabama counties in a “marginal risk” of severe storms on Wednesday, when the surface front will finally pass through. More storms are likely, but wind fields are unidirectional and not especially strong, despite a decent amount of instability. The main threat from storms Wednesday will come front will come from gusty thunderstorm winds and small hail. Wednesday’s high will be close to 70 degrees.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Clearing, breezy, and colder weather is the story for Thursday; the high will be in the 49-53 degree range with a brisk north wind. And, we drop below freezing by early Friday, with upper 20s likely for most places. Then, Friday will be sunny and cool with a high in the mid 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be noticeably warmer with a partly sunny sky; we will climb to near 70 degrees Saturday afternoon. There will be an increase in clouds Sunday; best chance of showers will be over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama. Sunday’s high will be in the mid to upper 60s.

NEXT WEEK: A weak surface front will drift down in here from the north with a chance of showers Monday, and possibly Tuesday. There is potential for a stronger system later in the week…see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Advent Episcopal School this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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