Cloudy and Mild with Showers, Cooler Monday

Cloudy skies cover much of the Southeast US this morning with temperatures quite warm as readings fell little over night. The temperature at my weather station in Helena fell only 5 degrees from the high of 71 yesterday to a low so far this morning of only 66. So even with the clouds in place the potential for some showers as a frontal system moves through the Southeast US, we should still see highs today reach the lower 70s, and those temperatures are about 14 degrees warmer than our 30-year averages.

For those headed to the beach, very mild temperatures continue into the first of the week ahead, but rain is in the forecast late Tuesday and Wednesday as the low moves along the coast. Highs today will be in the middle 70s while they drop into the 60s for much of the rest of the week. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

The upper air pattern featured a strong trough moving through the Great Lakes Region today which will help to drag the front into and across the Southeast US today and tonight. That trough deepens off the New England Coast Monday as a ridge develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The complicating factor is a closed low that hangs back over northern Mexico. Temperatures drop for us Monday and Tuesday with highs around 60 degrees.

That closed low over northern Mexico comes out Tuesday with the development of a surface low along the Southeast Texas Coast. Tuesday will be dry, but it looks like the rain will arrive very last Tuesday evening and into the early morning hours of Wednesday as the surface low tracks eastward along the Gulf Coast. The rain should come to an end by late afternoon or very early evening on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts still appear to be minimal with overall amounts expected to be between about one half and one inch. This is still a nice rain that will continue to help reduce the drought conditions for Alabama.

As we noted yesterday, this pattern of a surface low along the Gulf Coast is one that often creates some winter mischief for portions of the Southeast US. This one does not look like that kind of system since the colder air remains well north of over the Ohio River Valley (see graphic below).

Thursday and Friday a trough digs in along the East Coast producing some chilly days for us with a surface high to our northwest bringing a strong northerly wind to Central Alabama. Temperatures will be in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday with the morning lows dropping to near freezing on Thursday morning. Friday morning will also be chilly but the afternoon high should warm back into lower and middle 60s.

A somewhat complex upper air pattern occurs Saturday and Sunday with a weak trough undercutting the ridge that prevails across the eastern US. We should see a mixture of sun and clouds but right now it appears unlikely that we’ll see any rain due to the dryness of the atmosphere over the Southeast US.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS brings another strong trough across the Central US on the 21st of February. This trough is forecast to dig in along the East Coast so we should see another nice chill down reminding us that winter is not over just yet. But by the 24th/25th of February we come under a substantial ridge which should take us back to very warm values. At the end of the period, another trough begins to come our way out of the Central Rockies promising the possibility of stormy weather for the end of February and early March.

I had a great time at the Alabama Wildlife Center’s (AWC) fund raising event at the Harbert Center last night. It’s always good when you can be among folks who share a common interest in the work of the AWC. This afternoon I’ll once again be helping to staff the ABC 3340 booth at the World of Wheel at the BJCC, so if you have plans that take you to that event, be sure come by the ABC 3340 booth and say hello. James Spann will be up first thing on Monday with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Stay dry today and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Tags: ANC

Category: Alabama's Weather