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TURNING WET: The GFS is now coming around to the NAM solution, and it looks like we will have a nice two day opportunity for some badly needed rain here in Alabama. The NAM is also getting more aggressive with rain; the model is now printing 1.64″ for Birmingham through Wednesday evening, while the GFS is much drier with 0.62″. As usual, the truth is most likely between those values; I still think it is safe to forecast one-half to one inch of rain for all of Alabama tomorrow and Wednesday, with some heavier amounts possible, especially down across the southern counties of the state.

TIMING: Looks like the first showers will begin showing up by midday tomorrow, with the rain becoming more widespread tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Then, the rain should end from west to east by Wednesday evening as drier air moves back into the state.

SEVERE WEATHER? I would say unlikely due to limited instability, but the dynamic forcing looks pretty good (700 mb vv greater than 10.2 -ub/s), so a few strong storms are certainly possible.

LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Looks like dry and pleasant weather is the story Thursday through Sunday, with warm days and cool nights. The GFS MOS looks way too warm for the weekend; highs should be in the low to mid 80s with a good supply of sunshine.

INTO VOODOO LAND: Lots of model madness next week; the 12Z run of the GFS holds off the next rain event until Wednesday; confidence is growing in another good rain event next week, but it remains to be seen exactly when that will happen. We note a great setup for the first major snow storm of the season for Denver late in the weekend.

ALASKA IN THE DEEP FREEZE: Interesting SPS from Fairbanks this morning:

NOAK49 PAFG 060945
PNSAFG
AKZ222-062145-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 AM AKDT MON OCT 6 2008

…UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES AT FAIRBANKS…

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 31 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FAILED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. ON AVERAGE THE
DATE OF THE FIRST DAY WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING IS
OCTOBER 11TH. SO FAR THIS MONTH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF 38
DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON THE 2ND.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH OF 27.1 DEGREES IS 8.2
DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST FIRST 5
DAYS OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE 1992.

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I had a great time seeing the first graders today at Woodstock Elementary down in Bibb County; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….