Foggy Then Sunny and Warm

A dense fog advisory is in effect for all of Alabama until at least 8 am, so use caution if you are going to be out early. The fog and low clouds should give way by the middle of the morning to sunshine for much of the day with highs climbing into the lower and middle 70s. The main weather action today will be well west of us in North Central Texas where SPC has defined the standard slight risk area for severe storms. It looks like the wind profile should limit tornadoes and damaging wind with large hail seen as the biggest threat.

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Monday will be another warm February day for Central Alabama with highs in the middle 70s as we wait on the approach of the next system. The upper trough comes across Texas on Monday but shears out on Tuesday and Wednesday with the northern portion moving considerably faster than the southern portion. The southern portion dives into the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is a little slower with the approach of the surface front, and the ECMWF is more aggressive with rain and storms. I’m leaning toward the ECMWF, however, as the upper level system shears out the upper support for storms will diminish. Looks like the best chances for rain will come late Tuesday and into Wednesday – a tad slower than we saw yesterday.

Rain chances will be diminishing pretty quickly by Wednesday afternoon as both portions of the trough move away from Central Alabama. It appears very unlikely that temperatures will actually drop much as an upper ridge moves into the Central and eastern US and the surface flow never really taps into colder air well north of us. So I expect to see the highs in the range of 68 to 74.

The next upper trough approaches the Central US on Friday with a deep surface low developing Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of Amarillo and moving quickly to near Chicago. The surface low will trail a cold front into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday ramping up our chances for rain once again. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm on Friday ahead of the front with highs in the 70s. The upper trough zips eastward with the cold front moving rapidly off the Southeast US coast by Saturday morning, so it looks like next weekend should be very nice with temperatures falling back a bit with highs in the 60s for the weekend.

Looking into the extended range, the GFS brings another trough with a closed low into the Central US on Monday, February 27th, so it looks like we could see a wet day for the last day of February. Another round of wet and stormy weather is possible around March 2nd with the passage of another upper trough. By the end of the forecast period around March 6th, the GFS has a relative noisy pattern with several small short waves and a clear absence of any sign of cold weather.

Our Skywatcher John Brown and I will be discussing storm spotters and storm chasers today at 3 pm at the Hoover Library located near the intersection of US 31 and Interstate 459. We’ll be talking about both spotters and chasers and what goes into both functions. If you have an opportunity be sure to drop by and say hello. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video bright and early Monday morning. Enjoy the unseasonably warm with today. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather