Jack Hayes: The Future of the NWS

Yesterday, I talked about getting to hear Jack Hayes, National Weather Service Director give the keynote address at the National Weather Association Convention in Louisville in October. He discussed the strides that had been made since the modernization in the 80s. He also talked about the future.

In the area of severe weather, the new Multi-mission Phased Array Radar (MPAR) will give forecasters 1 minute scans. This will allow meteorologists to see more clearly what is going on in a thunderstorm, because a lot happens in the minutes that it takes now to make and process all of the various tilt levels. The new NEXRAD Super Res has given us eight times higher resolution on reflectivity. Coming next is the Dual Polarization radar upgrade that will give better identification of rain/snow, the location of large hail and better rainfall estimates.

Storm based warnings have generally been a success. We will see them become more focused and consistent as we go through time. Storm scale modeling will allow forecasters to predict which storms will produce tornado even before mesocyclones form and we will eventually see probabilistic tornado warnings.

Accurate warning lead times for tropical cyclones will move from 24 hours to days. Hayes predicts that there will be a 50% reduction in forecast track errors. He voiced his support for the Quik Scat satellite. He also foretold advances in modeling, including the new HWRF model and in storm surge models.

In the area of aviation weather, he said that 2/3 of all weather delays could be avoided, resulting in an $18 billion savings annually just in the U.S.

Hayes reported that 97,000 NOAA Weatheradios were delivered to schools in 2008. Another 182,000 will be delivered in 2009. We saw an example of how Weatheradios save lives close to home when a tornado struck a school in Caledonia, MS on January 10th of this year.

I will wrap up our coverage of Jack Hayes’ vision for the National Weather Service in tomorrow’s edition.

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts