Iron Bowl Forecast

Just a reminder… we are on a holiday schedule for the rest of the week with just one Weather Xtreme video per day; scroll down for todays video that was posted this morning.

IRON BOWL THOUGHTS: I really don’t see much need to change the Iron Bowl forecast; for 2:30 p.m. Saturday in Tuscaloosa we expect a mix of sun and clouds with a kickoff temperature in the upper 50s. No rain. The 12Z GFS agrees with this idea, but the pattern is a tricky one for forecasters, and we reserve the right to change this forecast at some point before Saturday.

MODEL PARADE: Here are some model images…. below is the 12Z GFS, valid at noon Friday:

Friday still looks wet with periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. I figure rain amounts of one-half to one inch can be expected, but we will have to watch for strong storms over South Alabama that might cut off the inflow of moisture into this part of the state.

Now, the GFS valid at noon Saturday:

The GFS looks pretty dry statewide, and bodes well for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa, as reflected in our forecast.

But… lets peek at the Canadian GEM valid at noon Saturday:

That model is more aggressive with the rain over the southern half of the state Saturday.

And, if you really want to get spooked, look at the Japanese global model, valid at noon Saturday:

That one, needless to say, is an outlier, but we will need to keep an eye on the system that will eject out of the Southwest U.S. at the end of the week.

OTHERWISE… dry through Thanksgiving Day with a warming trend; we should be in the mid 60s Thursday afternoon.

The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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