Model Madness or Reality?
Just chatting online with Jason Simpson, one of the greatest meteorologists of modern times, and the great American weather legend, JB Elliott, and we were looking over the latest GFS model run – the 12Z run. And it represents a BIG change from the earlier run.
Both runs are depicting a cold Monday, but the 12Z run seems to be faster and somewhat more vigorous with the approaching storm. In fact, IF the 12Z run should be correct, we could be looking at some winter weather possibilities for the Southeast including Alabama.
The age old dilemma for meteorologists in southern climes is the arrival of cold air before the departure of the moisture. We see it many times where the cold air arrives right on the heels of the moisture, so we end up at best with flurries.
This latest run also paints a big change for Saturday with considerably wetter conditions for Iron Bowl action. But as we all should know, models flip on solutions three and four days out, so as James Spann frequently mentions, it’s probably not a good idea to change the forecast just yet until we see if this model trend is picking up on the right solution.
In the meantime, it makes for some great speculation.
-Brian-
PS I hope everyone has a grand Thanksgiving.
Comments
Category: Uncategorized
Would be nice if we got some snow… but not too much. Anyone think that this may be the season that would trump 1993 storm in that season?
OK…OK I know I shouldn’t say this…but it does look like at best 1″ of snow for B’ham at 6:00am Sunday Morning. I posted a few pics of the model at
http://gregwx.blogspot.com. I know it needs to be verified by later model runs but it sure is fun…hoping for snow.
Thanks for the update Brian.
Brian, I have been following the GFS model runs for 10 days for Saturday at noon. They have been consistently dry for several days now. I wanted the Iron Bowl to be dry, and maybe it still will be. My sis is flying in from Chicago to attend the game with me. But bring on the snow for Monday! Thanks for the updates…
Going to be a chilly Iron Bowl this year. Does Auburn stand a chance against the Crimson Tide? I’m sure that it is possible for Tommy T’s team to pull off the big upset, but not this year.
It would sure be fun to see you guys and gals in ‘Bama get some snow!
http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com
i would love 2 c snow here in montgomery
Dear Staff – will Memphis have snow Monday? I am driving there for training. Thanks. Wheeeeeee! Wooo Hoooo or whatever! Slip and slide?