At the 2:00PM hour across Central Alabama, some small showers have started popping up in the eastern parts of Tuscaloosa and Walker counties along with the western parts of Jefferson County. A few more have developed in Cullman and Blount counties, along with parts of Bibb County. For the rest of the area, we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures in the upper 60s to the upper 70s.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
With all of the overall coverage that we had across the area on Saturday, we will still have some scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. We are still in a southerly flow which is bringing in warm moist air across the area. Skies will be partly clear today and afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s across the area. We will still have a few isolated showers in the area during the late evening and overnight hours, and in some spots we could see the development of patchy fog. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
A lagging cold front behind an upper-level trough will allow colder air aloft to overlap a wide warm sector. We’ll have the possibility of a few supercells develop out ahead of the front in association with a vorticity maximum and the nose of a jet streak.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of the northwest part of the state in a slight risk for severe storms (areas west of a line from Tuscaloosa to Decatur), with the rest of the areas along the I-59 and I-20/I-59 corridors in a marginal risk. Damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hail will be the main threats, but a brief tornado or two could be possible as well. The severe threat will end during the late evening on Monday, but showers and storms could continue into Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY… CALM BEFORE THE STORMS
Showers will be moving out of the state during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and will bring a return to some sunshine on Wednesday. It will be quite warm on both days as well, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday, and into the lower to mid 80s for Wednesday. Time to get those air conditioners working again, if you haven’t had them running already.
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
Yet another upper trough will affect Central Alabama, and this system has a look of an open wave to it. As of now, this system looks to have a better chance of severe storms where all modes could be possible, especially with surface instability values (CAPE) around 1500-2000 J/kg and both low-level and deep-layer shear. We’ll have a better idea on what to expect after we get through Monday’s event, but this is one we’ll need to watch. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s tot he lower 80s.
A DRIER LOOK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
Calmer and drier weather will return for Friday and Saturday, as rain will be moving out of the area during the morning on Friday and allowing for mostly sunny skies by Saturday. Friday’s highs will be in the 70s, with Saturday’s highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
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STORM SPOTTER TRAINING
The ABC 33/40 Weather Authority team will be on the road through early April offering free storm spotter classes. We need more trained spotters in Alabama. By attending, you can make the severe weather warning process better. No need to register, just come with a curious mind. There is no age limit. Kids that love weather will enjoy it. You will never look at a storm the same again. Next week the team will be at Oxford on Tuesday (at the Oxford Civic Center), and Jasper on Thursday (at the Jasper Civic Center).
Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including meteorologists at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show Monday evening at 8:30 CDT… you can watch it live here.
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