New SPC Outlook Out: No Real Change

No real change in thinking. Here is the portion of the discussion that pertains to Alabama:

…Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys…
A well-defined vorticity maximum over Missouri is forecast by model
guidance to move eastward over the Mississippi Valley tonight as the
associated upper trough amplifies during the period. A strong band
of mid/upper level winds is located on the southern periphery of the
system with a 60-70 kt mid-level jet streak progressing toward the
lower Mississippi Valley.

At the surface, a low near the Mississippi Delta will move slowly
eastward across northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama through
tonight, as a trailing cold front moves southeastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley. A quasistationary front extending eastward
from the low is forecast to sag slowly southward with time.

Earlier clouds over northern/central Mississippi into northern
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee have diminished substantially
permitting stronger diabatic heating to occur in advance of the
approaching cold front. With surface temperature warming into the
70s and dew point values in the low-mid 60s, further destabilization
is likely in the pre-frontal environment with MLCAPE reaching
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance indicates stronger
storms will develop along/ahead of the cold front during the early
afternoon with activity spreading eastward through the evening
hours. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will promote organized
storm structures including isolated supercells. Stronger cells will
be capable of producing mainly damaging wind gusts and severe hail.

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I will be back with some more detailed thinking shortly on the evolution and intensity of the system.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather