Windy, Stormy to End Weekend

Today will be a day with two distinct parts. We’ll state the day with some clouds, a bit of a breeze, and warm temperatures, and it will end tonight with the potential for severe thunderstorms. A wind advisory is in effect for all of Alabama until 10 pm this evening. It will be warm, but not as warm as yesterday due to the cloud cover. The highs today will be in the middle 80s.

The line of thunderstorms currently approaching the Mississippi River is likely to continue moving eastward with the primary threat being that of damaging wind and heavy rain. Tornado and severe thunderstorm watches are currently in effect, however, two of the severe thunderstorm watches expire while I am writing this, so I expect to see additional watches issued, perhaps while I’m preparing the Weather Xtreme Video.

It appears likely that the best time for this line of storms to reach the Alabama-Mississippi line is around 2 pm. The line should continue moving eastward across Alabama. Model soundings suggest the potential for isolated tornadoes when the line reaches Alabama. Unfortunately there is also a concern that additional storms, perhaps discrete supercells, could develop in the area behind the main squall line. The atmosphere will certainly be worked over by the squall line, but as the HRRR model shows, additional development could occur, so there is still a good deal of uncertainty in how the whole weather situation will completely unfold today.

The upper level closed low moves into Wisconsin on Monday, so our weather should be improving rapidly by Monday afternoon as the surface low moves into the Great Lakes area and the front sweeps today the East Coast. Monday will be a little cooler with highs in the 70s.

We get a break in the weather Tuesday and and early Wednesday before the next upper level storm system digs into the Lower Mississippi River Valley Thursday. As SPC notes, there is likely to be a risk for severe storms from Texas to the southern Appalachians, but there still remain a number of uncertainties to try to define a specific area of risk.

The closed low is forecast to move steadily but slowly across the Southeast US through Saturday finally moving off the East Coast on Sunday. This means our weather is likely to be quite unsettled while this upper low passes with severe weather possible on Thursday and rain, clouds, and storms into Saturday.

It is likely to be quite wet for the week ahead with two rounds of stormy weather. Total 5-day rainfall totals could be in the 3 to 5 inch range with 2 to 3 inches possible during the first round later today and tonight.

Looking ahead into voodoo country, the GFS is pretty bullish on developing a deep trough over the eastern third of the country beginning around the 11th of May. This would signal a rather chilly period from the 11th through 14th.

For anyone at or headed to the beach, it is going to be stormy there later today and tonight, but the weather will be improving on Monday. Highs will be around 80 and lows in the mid 60s. For a detailed look at the weather from Fort Morgan over to Panama City Beach, click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page. Save Up To 25% on Spring Break Beach Vacations on the Alabama Gulf Coast with Brett/Robinson! The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s best beach offers now!

I had a great time visiting with folks at Celebrate Hoover yesterday. James Spann is expected back with the next Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Remember, check back often for updates especially today and tonight. Be sure to have more than one way to receive warnings and be safe. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Tags: ANC

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos