We Now Have Invest 92L & Invest 93L Nearing The Gulf

| June 17, 2017 @ 4:23 pm

Invest 92L: Tropical Wave Expected To Develop Even More Over The Next Few Days

A tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance has changed little in organization since yesterday. However, some development is expected during the next two to three days before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic toward the Windward Islands and northeastern South America during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Invest 93L: Broad Low Pressure Forms In The Gulf

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a broad low pressure area has formed over the Gulf of Honduras, and the associated shower activity is showing signs of organization. Continued gradual development is expected as the system moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula during the remainder of
the weekend, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form early next week over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday, if necessary.

Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Where Will These Disturbances Be Early On Wednesday Morning

This is just only one model run, but this is the GEFS Mean Sea Level Pressure map valid at 1:00AM on Wednesday. As you can see, Invest 92L will be really far south, and will probably remain that far south and move into Southern Mexico or Central America. The big story is that this model run has Invest 93L moving towards the Gulf Coast. We’ll keep our eyes open on both of these disturbances to see what changes happen within the next few days.

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Scott Martin is a meteorologist, graphic artist, musician, husband, and a father. Scott is a member of the National Weather Association and the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides accurate forecasts for many racing series across the USA.

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