Heavy Rainfall From Cindy Affecting The Northern Gulf Coast

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy is now visible on the Lake Charles and Houston radars. It appears to have stalled temporarily to me, although the motion over the past few hours is still to the northwest. We don’t have any aircraft fixes on the center since Mission 04 has gone back to base.

The next Air Force plane is scheduled to depart at 530 p.m. CDT from Keesler.

Intense thunderstorms continue in the northwest quadrant of the storm. Dry air entrained into the system has snuffed out all the storms in the other quadrants. This has kept it from strengthening.

Tornado watches are in effect along the Gulf Coast from Central Louisiana across southern Mississippi, coastal Alabama and extreme Northwest Florida. There have been a couple of significant velocity couplets on Doppler radar east of Mobile and several tornado warnings.

A large shield of rain has been moving up from Central and southern Alabama. Rainfall amounts have been pretty light.

Another pulse of rain and storms was moving northward out of South Alabama. This prompted a large areal flood advisory for West Central Alabama.

A powerful feeder band has been developing from southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi into the Central Gulf of Mexico. These may be some of the coldest cloud tops so far. This will bring intense rainfall to the coast between New Orleans and Mobile. NESDIS blended precipitable water satellite products indicate that 2.95 inches of preciptable water in that band. A real firehose of tropical moisture that is being aided by a 60 knot low level jet and increasing mid-level flow on the east side of the system.

In addition to the heavy rain, 60 knots winds in the lowest 2-3 thousand feet of the atmosphere have prompted the NWS Slidell to issue a severe thunderstorm warning for Orleans, St. Tammany and Hancock parishes and counties east of New Orleans.

ON ANOTHER NOTE
Remnants of Bret are near Jamaica and have become a little better organized. Still not being tracked as an invest by the NHC. The GFS is not picking up on it at all.

Fast Facts As Of 4:00PM CDT
———————————————-
location…28.2n 93.2w
about 135 mi…215 km s of lake charles louisiana
about 125 mi…200 km se of galveston texas
maximum sustained winds…50 mph…85 km/h
present movement…nw or 315 degrees at 9 mph…15 km/h
minimum central pressure…994 mb…29.36 inches

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>GRAPHIC1 Goes HERE< <<<<<<<<
WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017
400 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…
…THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING…

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF CINDY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY, THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL, WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM
OIL RIGS NEAR THE CENTER IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: CINDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 9 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN THESE
AREAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE: INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN AREAS OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

TORNADOES: A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA, SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical