Near Record Warmth

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Yesterday the Birmingham airport observation got to 68 degrees, only 4 degrees from the record high. Today our record high is 77 so we will once again be close with near record warmth. Expect plenty of clouds with a strong southerly wind keeping things windy. But I think Central Alabama will be essentially dry today with the possibility of some patchy drizzle from time to time as the main front approaches from the west.

The main rain threat comes probably after 10 pm tonight and through about noon on Sunday. The rain should begin diminishing from the northwest during Sunday morning. And if this timing is correct, temperatures for much of Central and West Alabama will be holding steady in the 50s for much of the day.

A few of the storms may be strong, but I am not expecting to see severe weather in Alabama. This like a number of our weather systems of late has good shear but limited instability. SPC has outlooked a large area for a slight risk of severe weather to our west centered on Arkansas. The main threat for Day 1 appears to be damaging wind, however, wind profiles suggest isolated tornadoes may be possible. The main structure will be a squall line, but there is the possibility of isolated supercells ahead of the main line. The threat for severe weather diminishes for Day 2 as the stronger dynamics shoot northeast.

Dry weather with sunshine returns Monday and Tuesday. In fact, I think we’ll be dry through late Thursday before the next system impacts us. The next front and rain should come late Thursday and through much of Friday, so it looks like a wet start to 2009. That system exits during the day Friday paving the way for a dry and chilly weekend with highs Saturday around 50.

And peeking into voodoo country, the 06Z GFS is certainly suggesting in a big way a major pattern change as the long wave trough sets up over the eastern half of the country. This certainly jives with the NAO which has been suggesting colder weather as we get into the early days of January. And one of my favorite things about the GFS is the long range speculation. This run sure gives us lots of material with a cold AND wet period around the 10th of January – but I’m not stepping out into a forecast of snow or ice just yet, but it will be fun to watch.

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I anticipate having the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday I will be filling in for Jason, so the Weather Xtreme Video will be a tad later – probably closer to 9 or 9:30 am. Have a great weekend. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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