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Showers a Bit More Numerous Next Couple of Days

| July 5, 2017 @ 6:47 am

Much of Alabama waking up to clear skies with some patchy fog reducing visibilities to around 1 mile. Three very small showers were occurring this morning in Tuscaloosa County. There is not much change to the overall upper air pattern today with a trough over the eastern half of the country and a ridge over the western US. Heat remains an issue for the western states today and will for much of the next 7 days. Precipitable water values increase somewhat across the western sections of Alabama which the southern half is likely to remain mainly shower free while isolated showers occur across the northern third similar to what we way yesterday. Highs in Central Alabama should again reach the lower 90s.

In the Atlantic, we’re still keeping a close eye on the area of disturbed weather in the South Central Atlantic. There is a window for this system to become better organized, but after a couple of days, it will enter a region where conditions are less conducive, so if it is going to do something, it needs to be in the next couple of days. In the eastern North Pacific, there are three areas with the potential for development, but fortunately all of these areas are moving away from land.

While showers are expected to remain isolated today, a weak frontal boundary currently north of Alabama will settle into our area Thursday and Friday. The exact placement depends on which model you pick. Earlier in the week I was optimistic that the front might bring some drier air to our region, but that is looking much less likely now. I do believe the frontal boundary will sag into North and Central Alabama on Thursday and Friday. I think the presence of this boundary along with increased precipitable water values will lead to more numerous showers and thunderstorms for those days. The frontal boundary begins to wash out into the weekend.

Aloft, we maintain the troughiness over the eastern part of the country over the weekend, but the strength of the trough begins to wane some by Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the strong upper ridge to the west will nose into the Middle Mississippi River Valley. This will have little impact on the weather for Central Alabama with highs continuing to dance around the 90-degree mark with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms driven primarily by diurnal heating. Precipitable water values will be fairly high starting the first of next week, so we’ll have to be aware of the potential for heavy downpours which could result in localized flash flood issues.

The weather at the beach will include the possibility of a passing shower just about everyday for the next 7 days with highs in the upper 80s. There is no indication of any all day rain situation, so you should be able to enjoy the beach with only short interruptions for a passing shower. Please heed those showers and don’t become a lightning statistic. Rip current threat is low for the next couple of days. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!

Looking into voodoo country, and the GFS has returned to a forecast that features strong troughing in the eastern US from the 14th to the 20th of July. This pattern would result in almost no change to our weather pattern with the possible exception of a front actually making it through Central Alabama as a result of the strength of the trough. And this pattern would continue the heat in the west and the relatively mild warmth for much of the eastern US. But this is now the 4th or 5th flip in the projected solution in just the last 5 days. This points out the issue that we always have with forecasts into week 2. The strong trough may be gone tomorrow.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here around 7 am on Thursday morning. Be sure to check back often for notes on the Alabama weather scene. Just a quick reminder for veterans to this site, we will be on a one-a-day video schedule until Monday, July 10th, when James Spann returns from vacation. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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