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Showers Today; Dry Sunday

| July 8, 2017 @ 7:31 am

We start off today by taking a look at the radar imagery from yesterday afternoon to see how the frontal boundary sagged into Central Alabama with numerous showers over Central and South Alabama. This morning, the overall weather scene is reminiscent of earlier this week when we had those large clusters of storms over Arkansas. We another one today as well as one over parts of West Tennessee along another frontal boundary that dropped into Tennessee overnight. Clouds are most prevalent across the Tennessee River Valley this morning with temperatures starting off in the lower 70s. I expect to see highs once again in the lower 90s with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

SPC has all of Alabama in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. CAPE values are forecast to soar to around 3400 J/kg this afternoon across the northern half of Alabama with slightly lower values along the older frontal boundary across South Alabama. So once again I expect to see several severe thunderstorm warnings with damaging straight-line wind the primary threat.

Sunday the weather picture changes pretty dramatically. The front to our north this morning will move all the way into South Alabama as the upper trough slides by providing enough push to get some drier air into the northern half of Alabama. Precipitable water values suggest dry weather for the northern half of Alabama all the way to just north of Montgomery. South Alabama remains in the moisture-rich environment, so showers and storms remain a good bet across South Alabama and Northwest Florida. Highs across Central Alabama should be in the lower 90s, but dew points will be in the lower to middle 60s, so it should feel a little nicer with the lowered humidity.

There is not much change on Monday with the upper trough still in place but beginning to show signs of weakening. The frontal boundary is forecast to stall across South Alabama with the drier air in place across the northern half of Alabama. So once again North and Central Alabama should remain shower free but showers still possible from about Clanton southward to the beach.

From Tuesday through Thursday the upper trough weakens even more as the strong upper ridge centered over the Southwest US noses into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast US. By Thursday we’re looking at some of the highest thickness values we’ve seen all summer. GFS MOS guidance numbers are way off from what the thickness maps suggest. Instead of lower 90s shown in the MOS table, I believe we will be seeing highs push the upper 90s very strongly. This will be a brief taste of the excessive heat that upper ridge can generate. Moisture levels have gone back up so scattered showers driven by the heating of the afternoon will be back in the forecast.

Here’s hoping the GFS is correct next Friday and Saturday as it brings a strong trough across Canada that digs into the East Coast of the US once again pushing the strong upper ridge back into the Rockies and western US. This would lower thickness values and bring our temperatures somewhat cooler with highs mainly in the lower half of the 90s. Scattered showers remain possible each day with afternoon heating.

The weather at the beach will include the possibility of passing showers just about everyday for the next 7 days with highs in the upper 80s. There is no indication of any all day rain situation, so you should be able to enjoy the beach with only short interruptions for a passing shower. Please heed those showers and don’t become a lightning statistic. Rip current threat is low for the next couple of days. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!

The tropical Atlantic is once again quiet as Tropical Depression Four has become an open wave with just a few showers and some clouds. The eastern North Pacific still has only one area of concern, but that area is now Eugene. And Eugene is forecast to reach hurricane strength, but he will remain in the open water as the course parallels the Mexican coast.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS has a surprise for us as it generates another tropical disturbance in the Caribbean on July 17th. Over the continental US, the East Coast trough remains in places keeping the ridge over the western half of the country. That pattern remains all the way out to 372 hours, but wait until you see what the GFS does with that the tropical disturbance. Just remember, we’re just observing a feature that most likely will NOT be there in the runs later today or tomorrow.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here first thing on Sunday morning. Keep up with the Alabama weather scene by checking back here often for notes weather happenings in our state. Have a great day, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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