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A Quick Check On Our Weather Situation As We Approach Midday

| July 25, 2017 @ 11:40 am

Radar Check at 11:10 AM
Nearly every single bit of shower and thunderstorm activity in Central Alabama is associated with a MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) that is slowly moving to the south-southeast. Plenty of rain has already fallen over many locations in this region of Central Alabama, and it looks like it is no hurry in dissipating anytime soon. A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for parts of Russell County until 11:45 AM. I’ve already seen a few reports of where water is covering roadways in parts of Phenix City. Earlier this morning, the ASOS reporting station in Auburn recorded 1.69 inches of rainfall in less than an hour, and a total of 2.09 inches in the last 24 hours.

Precipitable water values are still highest in the southeastern part of Central Alabama at this time. The red that is located over portions of Macon, Lee, Russell, Tallapoosa, Elmore, and Montgomery counties is values at or above 2.50 inches. This area and the immediate surrounding area is where the most likely odds for flooding rains to fall as there is plenty of available moisture in the atmosphere. Even with that being said, much of Central Alabama south of the I-20 corridor has values above 2.00 inches, so really if any more storms develop, they will have the potential to dump copious amounts of rain down in a short period of time. These could lead to localized ponding and even some flash flooding.

As James said in the morning edition of the Weather Xtreme Video, you can’t really rely on models with summertime convective showers and storms, but they can give you a generalized idea of what could happen. The latest HRRR model run shows that more storms will form with the heating of the day, and I believe that is correct.

We’ll go with partly to mostly cloudy skies for much of Central Alabama for the rest of the daylight hours, with an increased risk for scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s south of the I-20 corridors, with lower 90s north of that. Today’s rain chances will be best in the southern half of the area, but everyone has at least a 1 in 3 chance.

A risk of scattered shower and storm activity is expected to continue through the late night and overnight hours for the southern parts of Central Alabama, while the rest will have a very small risk for an isolated shower or storm. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.

Hump Day Weather
Tomorrow looks like a little drier and a little hotter as well. We’ll have mostly clear to partly cloudy skies throughout Central Alabama, with a small risk of an isolated shower or two for the northern half, and slightly higher chance for scattered showers and storms for the southern half. Afternoon highs will be quite toasty, back up in the lower to mid 90s.

Just A Side Note…
It is only a little better right now along the Gulf Coast. We had a nice thunderstorm pass through Perdido Key, Florida about an hour ago. I took a few pictures from my room… one being the storm approaching the condo from the north, and the other was just a few seconds later of the bright sun over the beach in front of the condo. The rain has finally come to an end from this storm, but a few more are lined up to our west that could affect our weather again.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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