A Nice Saturday before Unsettled Weather Returns Sunday

On the surface map this morning, the cold front has progressed into Central Alabama, but it appears likely that it will only make it about as far south as Montgomery. Drier air as evidenced by dew points in the lower 60s has made it into the Tennessee River Valley, so I think the area from about Clanton northward will be shower free today with the best chances for showers to develop over the southern portion of Alabama. Look for the highs today with a mix of sun and clouds to reach near 90 degrees.

The strong upper trough moves into northern New England Sunday as the flow over the Southeast US goes nearly zonal. Unfortunately there appear to be several small short waves that will be traversing the area over the next week. These upper level disturbances will help to enhance showers and thunderstorms initiated primarily in the heat of the afternoon, so this combination will keep things somewhat unsettled for much of next week. Timing these weak, fast moving short waves can be difficult, so you may see adjustments to forecasts as the influence of this disturbances becomes clearer. The stalled front will move back northward on Sunday, so the dry air over the northern third of the state will not last long. Rain chances are expected to climb nicely Sunday with numerous showers possible across Central Alabama. Highs should remain in the upper 80s.

The upper flow remains nearly zonal through much of next week until Saturday. With clearly adequate moisture as seen on the precipitable water charts, we’ll be keeping some mention of showers and thunderstorms every day. The good news is that increased cloud cover and the presence of numerous showers everyday will keep our afternoon highs in check with the middle 80s most days – a range of about 84 to 87. Your high will depend on the precise amount of clouds at your location as well as the time you see a shower. Morning lows should be pretty uniform with values mainly in the lower 70s, a range of 69 to 74.

The presence of a weak frontal boundary on Monday and Tuesday will pose the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms across North and Central Alabama on Tuesday. SPC has this area in a marginal severe weather risk area with damaging wind and marginally severe hail the most likely threats. As you probably can imagine, rainfall will vary significantly because of the nature of the precipitation, that is, rain coming from thunderstorms. Overall through next Thursday, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible, so we’ll need to ve vigilant for the possibility of localized flash flooding each day. This threat will depend in part on how slow or fast the thunderstorms move.

The tropical Atlantic contained two areas of disturbed weather, one south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and the other in the South Central Caribbean. The one in the far eastern Atlantic is likely to move on a westerly course and conditions could become more favorable for some development early next week. Unlike the runs yesterday, and that includes the 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z runs, the GFS has switched over to the idea of no significant development of that system joining the ECMWF. The one in the Caribbean could reach the Southwest Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday, a solution supported by both the GFS and the ECMWF. It’s projected to move into the southern coast of Mexico. There is one depression in the eastern North Pacific which is not forecast to develop and should dissipate by Sunday night.

At the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, the chance for showers will continue this weekend and into much of next week. No complete washouts but showers could be fairly numerous at times today. You can expect to see highs mainly in the middle 80s and lows in the upper 70s. There is a moderate risk for rip currents today. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS has gone more bullish on nosing the Bermuda high into and across the Southeast US. The high begins to build into the Southeast US around the 13th and 14th of August and noses all the way to Texas by the 16th. The upper ridge is maintained across the southern tier of the US until the 18th of August when another strong upper level low forces troughing once again along the East Coast of the US. The upper ridge would mean some warm days, but it probably would not be anything warmer than the middle 90s.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here around 7 on Sunday morning. Be sure to check back often for updates on the Alabama weather picture. Have a great day, and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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