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Dry Today and Monday

| August 20, 2017 @ 6:52 am

A dry and clear morning starts the day for Alabama, and thanks to somewhat drier air in place across most of the state, showers or thunderstorms should be held to a minimum. Highs on the other hand are likely to be a tad warmer than yesterday with readings in the mid 90s.

The tropical Atlantic remains fairly active with three areas to watch. Harvey lost strength yesterday and has been downgraded to a disturbance. Model guidance is still indicating a west-northwest track for the area of disturbed weather, and conditions could become favorable for some strengthening as the system moves into the western Caribbean. The second system is a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands and it continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. But conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week. The third area in the South Central Atlantic is fighting dry air and upper level wind that is expected to limit any development, so no strengthening is expected for the next several days.

The upper air pattern will gradually change for us Monday as the Bermuda High noses into and across the Southeast US. Moisture levels stay fairly low into Monday, so showers are not expected across Central and North Alabama, but showers will be possible across South Alabama. Monday is eclipse day with the eclipse occurring between noon and 2:58 pm in the Birmingham area. Looks like clouds will be limited with perhaps some puffy cumulus clouds to deal with, but the prospects for seeing the eclipse look good (see the map below).

The upper ridge sticks with us on Tuesday, but a strong upper trough move across southern Canada will dampen the ridge displacing it to the east and west of the Southeast US. By late Wednesday a cold front should be pushing into the Southeast US from the northwest and it looks like our best rain chances will come on Wednesday. The GFS is now suggesting the front will make it through North and Central Alabama by midday Thursday, so we will see drier air coming in Thursday with the dry air in place on Friday. This should bring rain chances down to zero. Highs will also be coming down with the increased cloud cover and shower chances so look for highs Wednesday around 90.

Thursday and Friday should be nice days with the drier air pushing into our area. The GFS MOS guidance prints out upper 80s for highs on Thursday and Friday with dew points dropping into the middle 60s. So once again we should see some very nice days for August with the humidity levels down.

Saturday will be a transition day with just a small chance for a shower or two. Highs should remain just below 90 degrees. But by Sunday another strong upper trough moves into the Upper and Middle Mississippi River Valley and moisture levels will surge upward for us once again bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s.

Looking into voodoo country, the GFS continued to favor an eastern US trough and a western ridge as we close out August and enter September. Another strong trough was forecast to move across the Middle Mississippi River Valley around the 4th of September. With this overall upper air pattern, there is no sign of any excessive heat even as we begin September.

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will occur along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. No complete washouts. Highs will be dancing around the 90-degree mark today and into much of next week. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Hot Deals now!

Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann will have the next edition posted here first thing on Monday. Check back often for notes on Alabama weather. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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