Stormy Wednesday Ahead

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BALMY FEBRUARY WEATHER: We should rise into the low 70s again today with a few intervals of sunshine during the day along with a brisk south wind. To the west, a significant severe weather event will unfold, and SPC has a moderate risk of severe up in the area roughly from Dallas to Little Rock. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion, but no doubt most of the players are on the field for significant severe weather today to the west of Alabama. Around here, most of the state will be dry with only isolated showers.

OUR SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SPC has the highest severe weather probabilities tomorrow a little north of here, over Kentucky and Tennessee, where low level helicity and sufficient instability will be in place for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. We do note the 30% category goes as far south as I-20, and it looks like we will have to be on our toes for severe storms across much of Alabama tomorrow. We can be thankful this is not April; if instability values were higher, tomorrow could be one of those red letter days with a chance of significant tornadoes. But, this is February, and CAPE values should remain below 750 j/kg.

Having said that, there is no doubt parameters will be sufficient for a line of severe storms tomorrow, with the best chance coming from about 12:00 until 6:00 p.m. The greatest risk will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out statewide based on the highly sheared environment. It is likely that watches and warnings will be required tomorrow, and everyone needs to be in a position to hear watches and warnings as they are issued.

REST OF THE WEEK: The sky will clear quickly tomorrow night, and Thursday will be a sunny and pleasant day with a high well into the 60s. Clouds return Thursday night, and another rain event is likely Friday. The 06Z GFS hints the best chance of rain will come Friday afternoon into Friday night, and a few thunderstorms could be involved, although we don’t expect any severe weather at this point.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: The rain will end early Saturday morning, and the sky becomes partly sunny Saturday as dry air takes over. Sunday looks dry at this time; highs over the weekend will stay generally in the 60s as the Arctic connection remains broken at this time.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Looks like another rain/storm event one week from today (Tuesday Feb 17), and a change to colder weather is likely during the last 10 days of the month as the NAO flips negative. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

STORM ALERT 2009: I will be doing a one-man version of Storm Alert 2009 tonight at Sylvan Springs United Methodist Church, on Alabama Highway 269. This is a place hit hard by the EF5 tornado on April 8, 1998. Tonight’s show will begin at 7:00; I promise to have you on your way by 8:00. Then, our regular show this week will be Thursday night at 7:00 in downtown Jasper at the CHS building. You can meet our entire weather team, get some cool prizes to take home, and learn more about Alabama weather. The point of this annual weather tour is getting Alabamians ready for the spring tornado season season, which is just around the corner.

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I am on the road to West Alabama this morning; I will be speaking at South Lamar School at mid-morning. The afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon… it will be interesting to see what is going on to the west of Alabama at that time. Enjoy the day!

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