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Opening Round of Storms Appears Likely for Early Afternoon Across Central Alabama, Main Round Later This Afternoon/Evening

| March 19, 2018 @ 9:04 am

Collaborative post by Bill Murray and Scott Martin.

RADAR CHECK AT 8:40 AM: In Central Alabama, we only have one showers that is in the process of diminishing over the southeastern parts of Winston and the extreme northern parts of Walker County. When this was over Marion County, it was putting down a decent amount of rain and several lightning strokes. It will continue to shrink and diminish within the next few minutes as it moves into the western parts of Cullman County.

Up in Northeast Alabama, there is a batch of rain and thunderstorms that is moving eastward mainly over Madison and Jackson counties, affecting Hazel Green, New Market, Moores Mill, Hytop and Stevenson. These are moving to the east-northeast at approximately 25 MPH. These should be moving out of the state within the next 60-90 minutes.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.: There are a few areas of showers and thunderstorms across the southeast at this point on your Monday morning, but the good news is that most have not reached severe criteria. We do have one Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for portions of Lee and Phillips counties in extreme eastern Arkansas until 9:00 AM, with the main threat being damaging hail and wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

The center of low pressure that will be responsible for our threat for severe storms later today is currently located over the Oklahoma/Kansas state line starting to move into the southwestern parts of Missouri, with an associated cold front draping back through the extreme western portions of Arkansas and down into the northwestern corner of Louisiana and into eastern Texas. There is a stalled front over the southern parts of Alabama and Mississippi that will start moving northward, which will bring more moist and warmer conditions later this morning and into the afternoon hours.

Temperatures at 8:40 AM are running in the upper 50s to the mid-60s throughout Central Alabama from north to south, and dewpoint values are in the mid-50s to the mid-60s. We do have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for the southern half of Central Alabama, but it will expire at 9:00 AM.

THINKING ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Our mesoscale models are consistent in their treatment of the storm development this afternoon. The HRRR and 3km NAM both point to a wave of convection developing around noon across Central Alabama. The HRRR is a little further east, developing storms around 11 a.m. near and just west of I-65, while the NAM starts firing over West Alabama around 1 p.m. and spreading east.

The NAM shows storms becoming heavy in the Birmingham area before 3 p.m. while the HRRR waits til they are in eastern Alabama before getting them really going.

So we have moved our time frame for the start of severe weather up to 12 noon – 3 p.m. The tornado threat will not be as high as it will be tonight, but we can’t rule out tornadoes occurring with this first wave of storms, especially if they get started over West Alabama. Over East Central Alabama, these first storms could produce large hail as well as damaging winds. Areas that could be affected include Coosa, Tallapoosa, Chambers, Elmore, Macon and Lee Counties. We will be watching.

The main activity will occur ahead of the cold front, forming over western Tennessee and down into northern Mississippi around noon or 1 p.m. Those storms will push into Northwest Alabama between 3 and 5 p.m. and fire east and southeast. These storms will have plenty of instability, although that instability will begin to wane during the evening after sunset and the storms may gradually weaken. They undoubtedly will have tons of bulk shear, so they will organize into supercells. There will be pockets of higher low level helicity as well, so tornadoes will be possible in the enhanced risk area, including the possibility of strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater).

Timing for the main wave of storms looks like:

Hamilton 2pm-6pm
Huntsville/Jasper/Cullman/Tuscaloosa 4pm-8pm
Birmingham/Gadsden 5pm-9pm
Anniston/Clanton 8pm-midnight

Keep in mind that this timing can change.

Keep in mind that the storms will be scattered in nature, so everyone might not get storms. But the storms that do form could be intense.

The NWS in Birmingham will release a special balloon sounding at 1 p.m. This will give us a better idea about atmospheric profiles.

DON’T PANIC
But stay aware and prepared. Review your safety plan for any places you will be this afternoon and evening. Have your safety kit handy near your safe place including helmets, hard soled shoes, air horns. Make sure everything is charged up.

STAY WITH ALABAMAWX
We will have frequent updates throughout the day and night here on the blog along with the latest watches and warnings. The blog is in high traffic mode to give you the most up to date and relevant content immediately.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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