Some Clouds – Warmth Continues

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Not a lot of change from the discussion yesterday morning. Clouds came in a bit thicker and more widespread than I anticipated last night which helped to keep the morning lows a tad warmer than my forecast indicated. If you were not under the mid-level cloud deck your temperatures fell into the 40s but where the clouds were thicker and lasted a bit longer lows were only into the mid 50s or so. While we’ll see a good deal of clouds today, I also think we’ll see some sun with highs once again in the lower 70s.

Monday should be another great spring day, but we begin to see changes rapidly on Tuesday as moisture increases quickly as the ridge moves off to the east. I think most of us will be dry on Tuesday but a shower late in the day is a possibility.

The ridge holds Wednesday but a strong trough flattens the ridge and drags a front into the area of North and Central Alabama. The front will stick around lingering in the area and giving us some chance of rain well into the weekend. This could provide us with several days of rainy conditions which might bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the area.

On Saturday a strong short wave over the southern Rockies kicks out across the Plains States along with a surface low that comes out of Oklahoma and North Central Texas. This should provide us with the best shot at stormy weather. At the moment there is no area outlooked for severe weather due in part to model differences. But it is that time of year, so we’ll be watching the evolution of this whole system as the upcoming week floats along.

The whole system should sweep east of us on Sunday with cooler but improving weather. The cool down is expected to be short-lived with a return to seasonal values by Monday of the following week.

Out in voodoo country the GFS continues to throttle back on the strength of the storm system around April 3rd, but this is voodoo so I won’t put a lot of faith in the strength just yet.

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-Brian-

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