Rain Increasing Again

Rain was increasing again tonight across Central Alabama ahead of our next system.

A front lies across Central Alabama this evening. It pushed into the area this afternoon. It is moving back northward as a warm front as southerly winds increase ahead of a trough that extends from Central Arkansas into Northeast Texas.

A moderately unstable airmass is across Central Louisiana. There is also sufficient shear across that area to produce significant tornadoes for the next several hours. A new tornado watch has been issued for Central Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi as this action shifts into the Magnolia State over the next few hours.

Storms are lined up across Central Louisiana from near Monroe into Southeast Texas, near Houston, where a single tornado warning had been in effect until just a minute ago.

The airmass south of the front is very moist, with widespread precipitable waters values of up to 1.6 inches. The southerly winds overrunning the frontal boundary make for an efficient rainfall process and widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts will fall overnight near the frontal boundary with some amounts that could be three inches or higher. The threat of heavy rainfall has prompted a flash flood watch for all of Central Alabama from 10 p.m. until 10 a.m.

As the front continues northward overnight and stronger wind fields move in from the west, there is a threat of severe weather overnight. We don’t expect widespread severe weather across Central Alabama, but there could be a good deal of thunder and some reports of wind damage or even an isolated tornado overnight.

Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings overnight and rehearse your plan now so that you can take quick action in case warnings are issued.

The severe weather threat will end early Thursday morning as the upper system sweeps northeast and the front slips back southward temporarily.

More rain and storms after midnight tomorrow night, then the main event late Friday afternoon and early Saturday as a very unstable airmass and strong wind fields set up the potential for a significant outbreak of severe weather across Alabama and the Deep South.

Before it is all over, much of the area will receive between 3-5 inches of rain, with some higher amounts possible. The latest QPF maps from the HPC indicate an additions 3-4 inches from I-59 to the north with 5-6 inch amounts common over the rest of South Central and South Alabama. This could obviously produce flash flooding and river flooding as the protracted rainfall events continues into Saturday.

Category: Uncategorized