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PLEASANT SUMMER DAY: Temperatures are below forecast levels across North Alabama this afternoon, and nobody is complaining. Birmingham is at 90 degrees at 2:00, with a dewpoint of 58 and a humidity of only 33 percent. A fresh westerly breeze is also helping.

Our weather will stay dry tomorrow, and Saturday still looks mostly rain-free at this point, although we will have to watch for any MCS that forms northwest of the state; that could drop down in here Saturday night. But, for now things are looking pretty good for the fireworks shows across the state Saturday night.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: We should see a good increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms on these days as moist air flows northward and a surface front approaches from the north. Highs will drop down into the mid to upper 80s on these days, and we have the potential for at least one-half to one inch of rain. The heaviest rain will be over North Alabama, with amounts tapering off as you head south.

The GFS continues to show drier air creeping into North Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday; so many of the showers and storms on these days could very well be south of I-20.

TROPICAL AND BEACH WEATHER: Only a small risk of a thunderstorm tomorrow along the Alabama/NW Florida coast and some widely scattered ones for the July 4 holiday. A slightly better chance on Sunday, but the better chance of all will be on Monday. High temperatures between 90 and 95. A survey of sea surface temperatures show very warm water along the coast with water temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. We even saw a water temperature of 92 off Waveland, Mississippi. Tropical storms and hurricanes feast on water that warm, but there are no signs of any development.

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