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BRING ON A LONG WEEKEND: Sure seems like most people I know are taking today off… making for a nice three day Fourth of July weekend. Our weather stays dry today and tomorrow, with low humidity levels and temperatures near average values for early July in Alabama (highs mostly in the low 90s). There are a few fireworks shows tonight (at the Barons game, and in Chelsea Park), and the sky will be clear. For the fireworks displays tomorrow night, the chance of rain is very small.

SUNDAY: SPC has the northern half of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening thanks to an approaching surface boundary. The prime risk will be from wet microbursts, local areas of damaging straight line winds that can knock trees and power lines down easily. The greatest risk of severe storms will be along and north of I-20, and mostly during the peak of the daytime heating process, the late afternoon and evening hours.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS is now stalling the surface boundary near the Tennessee border, which makes more sense for July. If this solution is correct, next week will be relatively wet with a moist airmass in place. Each day will feature scattered to numerous showers and storms with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s because of the clouds and showers. Since our rain surplus for 2009 has vanished, this is a very good thing. It will replenish the soil moisture and keep the summer heat under control.

TROPICS: See the Weather Xtreme video; NHC is looking at a hybrid system over the middle the Atlantic, but it won’t get anywhere near the U.S. The Gulf remains quiet.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine tomorrow and Sunday with the risk of a few scattered showers and storms along the way. Showers and storms should be a little more widespread on the coast Monday with about 4 to 6 hours of sun. Highs tomorrow and Sunday will be in the 87 to 90 degree range along the immediate coast, with mid 90s likely for inland areas

LONG RANGE: The 5940 meter circle does show up on the 500 mb progs at mid-month, centered west of here over the Southern Plains. This can represent some pretty nasty heat, hopefully that heat bubble will stay west of here. For now, our weather for mid-month looks pretty routine with no sign of any tropical trouble.

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We are working on a holiday schedule; just one Weather Xtreme video through the weekend. Back to the “two a day” schedule Monday. Be safe this weekend!