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It looks like our best rain chances in nearly two weeks will be coming Sunday. I know I will welcome it since I missed out on the rain a few days ago, and I know there are lots of other folks will be there with me.

A weak short wave is moving through the Central US this morning, and that short wave is expected to become somewhat stronger as it enters the Southeast US tomorrow. This should pave the way for very good chances at some rain, but because of the convective nature of the situation, it is possible that some people could get missed. But this is one of the best shots at rain that we’ve seen in awhile. Rainfall amounts will be quite varied. I think many locations will see one quarter to one half inch of rain while isolated spots could see over 1 inch of rain in the stronger storms. CAPE values are expected to be in the range of 1000-2000 joules per kilogram. Clouds might limited surface heating but the low level moisture should be present. Damaging wind is the most likely feature with these storms though marginally severe hail may occur.

The trough slides east on Monday which should dry us out as far as rain chances go. However, the forecast gets a little murky after Monday. The GFS is suggesting that a small piece of the trough will hang back over Southwest Georgia while the main trough moves on with the strong westerly flow well to our north. If the GFS is right in this solution, the weak closed low could bring fairly good chances for showers and thunderstorms but primarily to our east. So the location of the weak upper low and how it meanders as it gets cut away from the main trough will be the determining factor.

The GFS run was incomplete this morning, so no peeks into voodoo land.

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I hope that you have a great Fourth of July. I’m exciting to be participating in the celebration at Buck Creek Park in Old Town Helena. Festivities begin at 1 pm and continue to 9 pm when we tough off the fireworks. There will be lots of games, music, and food vendors and the whole event is free so come on down and join us. Whatever you do today, let’s remember what this day means to our country and be thankful for all of those that have fought to establish and preserve our great country. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate information on past hailstorms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. We work primarily for people involved in insurance cases and for attorneys. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.