TD11 Forms
A tropical depression has formed in the western Caribbean… it might become a tropical storm before moving into Central America during the next 24 hours. If it survives, it could move up into the southern Gulf of Mexico at some point down the line, but cool SSTs over the northern Gulf should keep us protected. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this hour is only 66 degrees (F)….
November 4th, 2009 at 10:02 am
It’s coming right for us! Get your milk and bread!
November 4th, 2009 at 10:04 am
This is undergoing rapid Intensification and will need be upgrade before recon even gets down there.
Latest pass
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/tc_pages/thumbnails/thumbs/tc09/ATL/97L.INVEST/tmi/tmi_85v/thumb/20091104.1202.trmm.x.tmi_85v.97LINVEST.30kts-1006mb-115N-819W.56pc.jpg
November 4th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Latest NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif
November 4th, 2009 at 11:37 am
SSTs are very low. If anything, it will be a cool breeze and rain.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Climatology would say that it’s going to hit FL and could be as strong as a Cat 1 but 2009 has been a very depressing year for us Storm Chasers so I am not going to get my hopes up.
CMC takes this thing into Pensacola
GFDL Gulf of Mexico
It will be upgraded to IDA next advisory
AL 11 2009110418 BEST 0 118N 823W 35 1005 TS
November 4th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
18Z model runs are now out
http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/18Z-2.gif
November 4th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Wow! This thing organized quickly! And the CMC is very ominous…
November 4th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Latest recon….
Center around 11.9N 82.6W
Pressure is 998.3mb
Winds @ 45mph
November 4th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Eyewall forming ?
000
URNT12 KNHC 042013
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/19:50:50Z
B. 11 deg 57 min N
082 deg 37 min W
C. 925 mb 670 m
D. 39 kt
E. 320 deg 6 nm
F. 067 deg 48 kt
G. 325 deg 16 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 19 C / 775 m
J. 23 C / 764 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C30
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 19:45:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 19:54:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
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