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Wow, the weather just doesn’t get much better than this. After a chilly but refreshing start we should see lots of sun and highs climbing into the lower 70s across Central Alabama. We are currently being influenced by a surface high centered over the Outer Banks. But after nearly a week of rain-free, fine Fall weather, we will see our first November rain beginning as early as Monday afternoon/evening and continuing for much of the day Tuesday.

A short wave coming out of South Texas will tap into Gulf moisture on Monday and bring us some clouds. Meanwhile, Ida is forecast to move up into the Central Gulf before getting lost, turning toward Florida, and becoming extratropical. However, moisture from Ida will bring rain into Central Alabama late Monday and continuing into Tuesday. I think the rain will be ending for all but the extreme eastern sections of the state by Tuesday afternoon.

Ida is not likely to become a hurricane again simply because of the cooler temperatures evident in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecast holds it at tropical storm strength before it becomes extratropical in about 96 hours (late on the 10th of November). Model guidance is in pretty good agreement out to 48 hours but the impact of the trough coming out of the Northwest Gulf has caused some variation in the models at later time frames. So we will definitely be watching how Ida unfolds for us during the early part of the week.

Once that system goes by, we come back under high pressure centered over the middle of the country. That high will bring us several days of good weather before the next front and moisture impacts us on Saturday, November 14th.

Looking further ahead into voodoo country, the overall weather pattern remains active but not quite as active as it has been. We continue to see a good progression of traveling weather system on about a four day cycle. At least at the moment, it does not appear likely that November will match October and September with record rainfall – but, we have to see what happens with the moisture with Ida. My thinking is that we probably won’t see significant rainfall from Ida because of the overall forward motion of the rain.

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STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday, November 14, at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

Hope you can enjoy this great weather today. Working on some home projects yesterday, I was in and out and really enjoyed being outside for some of the time. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.