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Looks like one more great Fall day before we see the elements of Ida begin to affect the weather across Central Alabama. For today, a few passing clouds – mostly high cirrus with some altocumulus clouds thrown in for good measure – with lots of sun that should see temperatures climb into the middle 70s – some spots pushing the upper 70s.

Monday will see clouds increasing across the area along with rain chances developing late in the day as Ida moves steadily across the Gulf of Mexico. A short wave moving out of northern Mexico should help to recurve Ida toward the Northwest Florida coast late Tuesday. So for us, rain chances increase significantly late Monday with plenty of rain in store for us on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are likely to fall around 2 inches for much of Central Alabama with a gradient from south to north with lesser rainfall amounts across the Tennessee Valley.

If the GFS is correct, the short wave will deepen as it absorbs Ida and moves steadily east-northeast. This should sweep Ida and the rain out of here on Wednesday but bring problems to the Outer Banks and the Mid-Atlantic states. There is some disagreement in the longer range as to what Ida will do. Several models suggest Ida recurving back to the west coast of Florida which is the official NHC track as of this writing. The GFS seems to have a pretty good handle on the short wave trough moving across the southern tier of the US, so that model along with several others seems to be more aggressive is a smooth motion to Ida off to the northeast. Since several models suggest the storm will become “lost” it would be wise for us to keep that possibility in mind and watch for that kind of development.

Ida did regain hurricane intensity overnight, but the cooler water of the northern Gulf should keep Ida from increasing in strength much beyond a Category 1 hurricane. The NHC forecast shows Ida becoming extratropical which has to do with the structure of the hurricane on Tuesday as it encounters the cooler water temperatures.

The end of the week should see a return to great weather with an upper ridge and about seasonal temperatures. Our next good chance for rain appears to come a week from tomorrow but that is verging on voodoo.

Speaking of voodoo, the flow remains fairly active with a strong short wave coming out of the southern Rockies at the end of the period around the 23rd of November.

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STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday, November 14, at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

I hope you enjoy another great Fall day. I know a nice Fall walk is in my future, perhaps enjoying the Fall color at the Cahaba Lily Park in Helena. James Spann will be back bright and early tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.