In analyzing data and model outputs this morning, I have to say I am more concerned about Ida.

Satellite images this morning show that the storm may be about to intensify again. It is over 29C water right now, which is still favorable for intensification.

Here is the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map from AOML.

As you can see, the potential is there for intensification through this afternoon. There is warm enough water to support Ida holding its intensity until about latitude 25N. Ida should gain that latitude before sunrise, so there should be slow weakening after that.

Wind shear is about 25 knots over the storm, which is still supportive of intensification. But the wind shear will increase starting tonight and Monday. This supports the idea that there will be slow weakening on Monday.

MODEL DATA
Let’s look at some model guidance. First in intensity:

The HWRF model (06z) run indicated that Ida would achieve a central pressure of 941 mb. That seems highly unlikely. It also showed maximum winds of 100 mph.

The GFDL predicts a minimum pressure of 972 mb over the Gulf with top winds of 95 mph or so. That seems reasonable.

And in track:

Sneak peek at the new GFS shows the storm making landfall near Pensacola before midnight Monday night. Likely would still be a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.

The NAM is much further west:

That seems hard to buy.

The NHC still believes that Ida will begin becoming extratropical by Monday morning, thanks to the cooler water, increasing shear and the trough waiting to the west. But whether it is a tropical storm/hurricane, hybrid storm or extratropical storm, it will will have an impact on the coast. It is increasingly looking like Ida will make landfall.

TRACK
Here is all the early track guidance:

The 06z runs of the GFS, GDFL and HWRF all showed the storm making landfall and moving up into South Alabama. This early track guidance seems to support that as well.

So, I think there are increasing indications that we may see a landfall along the Gulf Coast. It likely will be a category one hurricane, could be a strong tropical storm.

COASTAL IMPACTS
Current thinking on impacts based on this information for the Alabama/NW Florida Coast:

…2-3 foot storm surge
…Tropical storm force winds by late Monday afternoon
…58 mph winds by just after midnight
…Hurricane force winds possible by sunrise for a few hours

I expect a hurricane warning will be issued eastward to include the Alabama and part of the NW Florida Coast later.

CENTRAL ALABAMA IMPACTS
Central Alabama impacts the same…
…increasing gusty winds on Monday…reaching 15-25 mph Monday night and 20-30 mph on Tuesday with higher gusts
…3-4 inches of rain possible across central Alabama, mainly south of I-20 and north of I-65/85. Heaviest rain Monday night 6 pm until 10 a.m. Tuesday.
…no thunderstorms over Central Alabama

RAINFALL
Here is the rainfall graphic from the HPC.

RECON
AF 309 is getting close to the storm so we will have some center fixes soon and an answer to the short term intensification question.