Hurricane Warnings Issued
FAST FACTS ON IDA
9:00 PM CST Sun Nov 8
Location: 23.7°N 86.7°W….500 miles SSE of Mobile
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
HIGHLIGHTS
…Hurricane warnings issued from Pascagoula to Indian Pass, FL
…Ida maintains 105 mph intensity…central pressure 979 mb
As you can see, the center oculd make landfall anywhere between Gulfport, MS and Panama City, FL.
WARNINGS ISSUED…
AT 900 PM CST…0300 UTC…A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 900 PM CST…0300 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI…INCLUDING
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 900 PM CST…0300 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS TO AUCILLA
RIVER FLORIDA.
more shortly….
November 8th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Sorry to be a bother, Bill, but I have another question. Is James’ update on Twitter from several hours ago still holding true to the forecast. I’m just a little antsy about the winds for N. AL tomorrow night/Tuesday. Will the majority of the stuff from Ida stay mainly south of N. AL?? I guess there are still more questions than answers.
November 8th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
It’s nothing to worry about Katie. Your winds might average 10-20 with an occasional 30 mph gust. Shouldn’t cause any big problems.
November 8th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
Ok, thank you Bill. I’ve just been rather antsy all evening about Ida, reading all the stuff that the various NWS offices and whatnot are saying and other places. Maybe that’s what’s making me antsy. If it’s not going to be as bad as some folks are saying…. and it won’t be nearly as bad as it will be toward south AL and the coast? I also saw where they issued a state of emergency in LA, I guess as a precaution?
November 8th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
She is an interesting storm. Hopefully will get a little excitement in central AL from it.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Isn’t this the same Ida that “would not impact Alabama” just three to four days ago? I wouldn’t put too much stock in what any of the forecasters say on this one – she’s an enigma wrapped in a mystery, cloaked in 33/40s inability to nail virtually every big weather system this year.
Besides, James has been too busy dogging his common misconceptions of climate change to be worried about local forecast accuracy. He’s got celebrity to build!!
November 8th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
bill (post#5),
If its such a problem, why do you come and post here? This blog is for forecast thoughts, and insight into what these folks are thinking as they formulate their forecast. They’re giving their best effort.
Trust me, its not a job any of us could do any better, including me AND you.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Bill, seems to me that hurricane forecasts are usually inaccurate as far out as three to four days (as the meterologist are quick to point out) and become more accurate the closer they get. Seems like you have an axe to grind with James over the climate change issues and you are putting down his forcasting for that reason. I’m just sayin…
November 8th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
I do have an axe to grind with James about AGW, Stef, but I didn’t care because he was a great meteorlogist.
Until this year.
All forecasters miss calls here or there, of course. But James and gang have been on a ROLL since the spring. Virtually every major severe weather event that was forecasted never happened. Forecasted “partly sunny” days turned into outbreaks. Literally every major rain event in the last few months was either predicted not to occur or was highly underestimated – even in short-range forecasts. Temperature forecasts have been uncharacteristically all over the place for James and crew.
Now we have Ida. James said with certainty that Ida “will not be a threat to Alabama.” Now here we are with the high potential of a landfalling hurricane on our shores. Forgive me if I don’t scoff.
November 9th, 2009 at 12:05 am
Unfortunately, Bill, meteorology is not an exact science. I see that you are very quick to point out that you are a believer in global warming. If this is true, you might want to think about blaming the mishaps on this global climate change you speak of. Although, you are probably just as likely to find erraneous proof to support this theory as for global warming itself. I respect your opinion greatly, even though I am opposed. It can seem that meteorologists “miss” it a good portion of the time, it is better than not having any information at all. There is a saying that says, “History never repeats itself, but weather does.” Well, in this case, no one has a late season hurricane to compare this one to, and forcasting is extra challenging. As for the other failures to forcast correctly, all I can say is we can’t get it right all of the time, and criticism is part of being a meteorologist as James well knows. Although your posts are somewhat controversial, please know that your criticisms will be taken with a grain of sand, so why waste your time?