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WET MONDAY MORNING: Widespread rain covers the northern part of Alabama this morning as we deal with the first of two rain events this week. Rain totals this morning will be around 1/2 inch, and the rain will end by the lunch hour as drier enters the state from the north. Clouds will break up this afternoon, and we will be generally clear and cool tonight with a low in the 32 to 36 degree range early tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be dry with a high not too far from 60. We will begin the day tomorrow with a bright sunny sky, but clouds will begin to return tomorrow afternoon in advance of a deep upper low that will be opening up and lifting out from the Southwest U.S.

MID-WEEK SOAKER: Rain from this system will begin tomorrow night, continuing into the day Wednesday as a surface low lifts from the Northwest Gulf of Mexico to a point not far from Birmingham by midday Wednesday. The exact track of this surface low will determine the timing and severe weather potential for Alabama. We note the NAM has the surface low over North-Central Mississippi at midday Wednesday, while the GFS shows the low near Gadsden (see the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics). We will go with a compromise and put the low at Birmingham, which means the best chance of severe weather will be over Southeast Alabama, mostly south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Roanoke, where dewpoints can surge up into the mid 60s in the warm sector.

All of Alabama will have potential for heavy rain tomorrow night into Wednesday. The NAM is printing a whopping 3.48″ during the next 84 hours, with 0.41″ today, and the rest (3.07″) coming late tomorrow night and Wednesday. This is very possible; for now we are not expecting major flooding issues, however, since the ground can soak up lots of water. Still, we will have to watch for localized flooding problems. The rain will end from west to east Wednesday afternoon as the surface low deepens and moves northeast.

COLD AIR BLOWS IN THURSDAY: The coldest air so far this season will follow the rain for Thursday and Friday. We will have a hard time getting out of the low to mid 40s Thursday with clouds hanging tough much of the day along with a brisk north wind. By Friday, the sun returns, but the cold air deepens, and the lower thickness values support a high of only 41 degrees or so for Birmingham. We should drop into the 20s both Friday and Saturday morning, and it looks like the coldest valleys will have a chance of reaching the upper teens at daybreak Saturday with a clear sky and calm wind.

OUR WEEKEND: The weekend will feature a warming trend as afternoon temperatures rise back into the 50s. Saturday will be sunny; clouds return Sunday, and rain is possible by Sunday night with the next wave approaching Alabama from the west. Some rain will likely linger into Monday of next week.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS suggests the polar jet will retreat north by mid-month, but the weather looks very changeable through December, just what you expect this time of the year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new episode tonight; it will be posted by 11:00 p.m. or so.

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I will be headed up to Attalla this morning to speak at Stowers Hill Intermediate School…. then I will head back for the TV weather office at ABC 33/40 and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day and stay dry!