The Tuesday morning edition of the Weather Xtreme video is available on the player below, and also on iTunes:

I always encourage you to watch the video… it might make this blog discussion more understandable since I am not the sharpest writer in the world.

SHORT TERM: Moisture levels will increase tomorrow and tomorrow, and the sky will be occasionally cloudy. You sure can’t rule out a few showers, especially tomorrow, but nothing widespread is expected. Temperatures remain mild, with a high in the 68 to 72 degree range likely on both days. And, of course, while we enjoy the mild weather we will watch the temperatures tumble over the northern and central U.S. as the coldest air so far this season moves slowly southward.

From the frozen tundra of Montana this morning, Cutbank reports -15 degrees (F) with a wind chill index of -43. Ouch. And this is just November. It is also interesting to note that is 75 degrees colder than Birmingham.

THURSDAY: The fun and games begin. A surface low is expected to form on the Arctic front, moving from near Dallas to Little Rock to Indianapolis. This will bring the threat of snow and ice to areas west of the track, and severe storms east of the track. Looks like a major snow event is setting up in the general area from Tulsa to Detroit… this zone includes cities like St. Louis and Chicago; they could be slammed with over six inches of snow, with isolated amounts over 10 inches. Some light snow and ice is possible as far south as Dallas/Fort Worth. If you happen to be traveling to any of these areas, you might not describe the experience as “fun and games”.

We will be on the warm side of the low, and SPC has much of the state in the day 3 severe weather threat for Thursday night. If the WRF/NAM solution pans out, we will have very impressive dynamics, but marginal thermodynamics for severe weather. Here are some numbers from that model for Birmingham, valid around midnight Thursday night:

Surface based CAPE: 42 j/kg
0 to 3 km helicity: 255
850 mb wind speed: 46 knots
500 mb wind speed: 70 knots
200 mb wind speed: 108 knots

If the CAPE values were over 1500, we would be concerned about a a major tornado outbreak. But, the instability is extremely limited so it is hard to get excited about a big severe weather issue for now. But, you sure can’t ignore the dynamics.

I will bump up the timing a bit on the storms; while scattered showers are possible during the day Thursday, it now looks like the main window for rain and stronger storms will come from about 6:00 p.m. Thursday through 6:00 a.m. Friday.

FRIDAY: As the rain moves out early in the day, colder air moves in. The cold air will be very shallow, less than 2,000 feet deep. Temperatures will fall from the 50s during the morning, through the 40s, possibly reaching the upper 30s by the evening hours with a chilly north wind. A good snow cover from Oklahoma City to Detroit will mean the air won’t modify all that much on the way southeast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: For now our forecast is for dry and cool weather, but we might have to consider a mention of light rain Sunday as an upper trough sweeps through the state. Moisture will be very limited, so if rain does fall it should be light and spotty on Sunday.

LONG RANGE: The 06Z GFS paints an interesting system in the December 8-9 time frame with some snow potential for areas north of here… Tennessee and Kentucky. That look would suggest just rain for Alabama.

JOIN THE PARTY: Plenty of interesting articles over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Register and you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published to the main page.

SKYWATCHERS: We are always looking for more members of the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team; they report back to us in real time during active weather like severe thunderstorm and winter storm events; we use instant message technology for the communication which works wonderfully. Read more about the program here.

I will be heading up to Cullman shortly to speak to the kids at Cullman East Elementary. I will be back in the office early this afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted on time, by 3:30. Enjoy the day!