Dry but Cold
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For the next several days, through Tuesday, we should remain dry, but it will also remain cold. The big upper closed low and trough will finally edge eastward taking that big storm into Canada. However, that will put the Southeast under a good northwesterly flow helping to reinforce the cold air. For today we should see about 50 for the high with some cirrus clouds as we saw yesterday filtering the sunshine. Monday will be a bit nippier with a high only in the lower to middle 40s.
A short wave trough approaches out of the southern Rockies on Tuesday with a surface low forming in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. I do not expect rain here on Tuesday but it will be a transition day as we see clouds increase and thicken up. The precipitation will arrive early Wednesday morning and it could begin as sleet or freezing rain especially west and north of Birmingham. I do not expect to see any major travel issues at this time as the precipitation should change over to all rain fairly quickly. Rainfall amounts will probably be around half an inch with amounts increasing as you move south from Birmingham. The highest rainfall totals should be along the Gulf Coast.
The surface low moves to the northeast Thursday ending the precipitation. A fast moving short wave comes by on Friday and this could produce some patchy light snow, snow flurries, or a few snow showers as another low moves across the Central Gulf. Again, this does not look like a significant snowfall for us. It goes without saying that we will need to be watchful since a small change in the track of the surface low can have a major impact on the weather we get.
As we head into the first weekend of 2010, it looks cold but dry.
As you might expect, the peek at voodoo country is fascinating. The GFS continues to paint an active flow pattern with a continuation of cold weather and surface lows in the Gulf. In fact, if the January 6th forecast is true, it looks like a major snow event for Arkansas, Oklahoma, the eastern half of Texas and parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana. We’ll see how all that develops.
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I hope that you have a great day. Cirrus clouds can present some interesting patterns in the sky, so keep you eye on the sky. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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December 27th, 2009 at 7:59 am
looks like a cold and interesting end of the year/early january shaping up for much of the nation… should be at least 1 or 2 winter wx threats along the way. Have a great day!!
December 27th, 2009 at 8:23 am
What is the outlook for Spring?
Assuming Winter will continue El Nino.
Asking as the annual ponder over seeds
and crop planning begins.
December 27th, 2009 at 8:46 am
Sort of cool here in Vigo this morning with a low of 26 and calm winds. We did have a heavy frost this morning. Current temp is 42 under a bright beautiful sun. Pressure is 29.93 and pretty steady for the last 12 hours.
lilypons,
I predict spring will arive cool and wet this year but will develop into a nice summer. Planting will be delayed for a week or two due more to wet ground rather than temps. Looking for a more nearly normal summer this year. Just my feelings this winter. Haven’t even read the Old Farmers Almanac this year lol.
Have a wonderful Lord’s day everyone,
Bill
December 27th, 2009 at 9:23 am
This is looking more and more like the coldest/Active patterns in a decade or mabye even two decades.I still say the early and expansive snow pack to the north and west will make a huge difference in the comming weeks.That will be exciting considering the last real measurable snow here was New years eve of 2000.
December 27th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Yes I fill the next few weeks looks cold and active, CWK here at our place in Alabaster we had the best snow last year that I have seen in years true we only got a little more than an inch but it was the most I have seen in years.
December 27th, 2009 at 10:11 am
That’s a good question lilypons..During a El Nino year how does it affect the spring tornado season..Will it produce a greater threat for stronger & more dangerous tornado’s???..Does anyone know if the Oak Grove F5 occurred during an El Nino year..
December 27th, 2009 at 10:15 am
check out the 12z gfs at 120 hours!!!! yipee!
December 27th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Maybe just maybe we can get the cold air and the rain to meet for a meeting of the minds. Need to talk with snow mizzer also.
December 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
Trend look good as far as New Years snow chances for north central Alabama. Still plenty of time to watch for more consistancy and track of low.
December 27th, 2009 at 11:18 am
is bham north of the line 4 a good new years snow
December 27th, 2009 at 11:37 am
could someone post where we can find the 12z runs, etc? thanks in advance.
December 27th, 2009 at 11:48 am
keith..
here ya go..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
click on gfs 12z then go click on “medium” then click on “850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn” for the hours you wish to see, in this case.. the 120 hr frame
December 27th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
does it look like i will see any snow/flurries here in montgomery over the next week based off of the latest models.
December 27th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Lee: Found a site called “El Nino, Previous El Nino Events”. It gives El Nino years back to 1902. I posted a few of the years below. If I remember correctly the Oak Grove EF5 was in 1998. This site mentions that “1997-1998″ event was the strongest El Nino ever recorded. Just a short list of El Nino’s years.
1982-1983
1986-1987
1991-1992
1994-1995
1997-1998
2002-2003
2006-No further Info after this.
Hope this answers you question.
December 27th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Thanks, Blake. Is that all you need is a website to be a meteorologist (tongue firmly in cheek)? LOL
What is an educated guess on this week’s weather? I am considering taking the family to Gatlinburg to catch some snowfall but would prefer to stay here and save the money and time if we have a decent shot. I am in the Bham metro area.
December 27th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
^^^^^^^Nevermind on this post^^^^^^^^^^^^^I just read the next discussion
December 27th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Thanks for the info Wayne..Lets hope it won’t affect this coming spring tornado season to much..